tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post1848375999529304875..comments2023-06-05T04:15:43.212-04:00Comments on Money Money Money: Market has no patiencechaugnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.comBlogger20125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-62911593808143095622009-11-11T15:11:18.355-05:002009-11-11T15:11:18.355-05:00lol just a tad too early ... now that was not time...lol just a tad too early ... now that was not timed correctly haha ... quite funny.chaugnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-12005429490124616482009-11-11T15:07:26.046-05:002009-11-11T15:07:26.046-05:00covered again break even (scalp that is).covered again break even (scalp that is).chaugnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-77889149303446957662009-11-11T14:53:09.523-05:002009-11-11T14:53:09.523-05:00if you are long since monday nice move. I do think...if you are long since monday nice move. I do think we will trade around this range at least another day or so. We may have one last pop in it towards the targets we had outlined. Probabilities are increasing since we have not seen any red today.chaugnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-89978447613091023972009-11-11T14:52:04.989-05:002009-11-11T14:52:04.989-05:00short ES for a scalp.short ES for a scalp.chaugnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-67137538760013024292009-11-11T14:36:31.170-05:002009-11-11T14:36:31.170-05:00I haven't touched my positions since Monday, b...I haven't touched my positions since Monday, but itching to do so now. Currently have a slight long bias.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-60569121636483084292009-11-11T13:53:38.508-05:002009-11-11T13:53:38.508-05:00do not expect the market to break down here ... ju...do not expect the market to break down here ... just so you know but do expect to see lower prices in opex week.chaugnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-65212678460555230102009-11-11T13:50:22.494-05:002009-11-11T13:50:22.494-05:00added dec 110 puts here (yes at the low of the day...added dec 110 puts here (yes at the low of the day)chaugnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-50285255792442562022009-11-11T11:09:38.307-05:002009-11-11T11:09:38.307-05:00breakdown coming just on time (a tiny bit early)breakdown coming just on time (a tiny bit early)chaugnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-41857367717245668112009-11-11T10:59:59.069-05:002009-11-11T10:59:59.069-05:00remember the 5 bar 15 min setup (right hand side t...remember the 5 bar 15 min setup (right hand side trade lessons). We are currently on bar 3 to distribute - meaning we have a high potential of 2 more 15 min down bars netting a total of around 8-10 spx points.chaugnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-14578609737436700892009-11-11T10:51:52.425-05:002009-11-11T10:51:52.425-05:00I was wrong on the price levels. While we were rig...I was wrong on the price levels. While we were right on only making a marginal new high we missed the top ... doh. Take a look at VIX !!!!!!<br /><br />This is going to be a wild ride down.chaugnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-33905346304238056462009-11-11T10:38:50.198-05:002009-11-11T10:38:50.198-05:00though keep in mind ... whether you are long or sh...though keep in mind ... whether you are long or short. This is what I was talking about. Now comes to the time to either scale into shorts, remove hedges or hedge the longs or take partial profits.<br /><br />Please trade your own plan, but its just my opinion of what we are doing at the moment.chaugnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-15017601615100775282009-11-11T10:36:57.887-05:002009-11-11T10:36:57.887-05:00and on that 1% chance that we will not and reverse...and on that 1% chance that we will not and reverse lower from here. I already have some shorts (though quite underinvested) and do not mind getting to the party late =)chaugnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-81970024613250732802009-11-11T10:35:09.252-05:002009-11-11T10:35:09.252-05:00yeap 99% certain we will reach those levels today....yeap 99% certain we will reach those levels today.chaugnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-39901213870428352702009-11-11T10:33:28.563-05:002009-11-11T10:33:28.563-05:00think we'll get that high?think we'll get that high?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-39970142294406620622009-11-11T10:05:07.929-05:002009-11-11T10:05:07.929-05:00looks like adjusted scenario 2 is in play right no...looks like adjusted scenario 2 is in play right now. So we have a roadmap to position ourselves now. The only way this can get invalidated is a break of the low of the day. So watch that carefully - other then that higher prices are VERY likely.<br /><br />Watch the 1107-1110 very carefully. This is a HIGH probability top right there. Just a few points short of the ES targets BUT this is explained as a marginal new high since DOW reached (and breached) its upper targets. So some buying frenzy that will be held back by SPX and of course EURUSD that has failed to put in a new high.<br /><br />Exciting times =)chaugnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-22550459922016997662009-11-11T09:56:22.110-05:002009-11-11T09:56:22.110-05:0010300 on the DOW - get the popcorn ready ... would...10300 on the DOW - get the popcorn ready ... would not be surprised to see another 150 points on the DOW here ...chaugnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-22689533146611013422009-11-11T09:48:52.200-05:002009-11-11T09:48:52.200-05:00could we be going for scenario 1?
Scenario 3 - a...could we be going for scenario 1? <br /><br />Scenario 3 - almost out the window now<br />Scenario 2 - could still be happening with an adjustment and making the high around 1:35-1:45 around the same price levels, but again due to the open lower probabilities now.<br /><br />Of course - we could still be in a wave 4, as mentioned maybe the market needs to learn a lesson in patience and we retrace down towards the w4 lower end targets to go higher into OPEX (which seems to be a common re-occurance for opex weeks).chaugnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-29926512722731616422009-11-11T09:40:16.680-05:002009-11-11T09:40:16.680-05:00yeap 100% agree. I have to admit, I started to ign...yeap 100% agree. I have to admit, I started to ignore bearish divergences especially when looking at momentum, price and volume. But the MACD is a bit too important to ignore out of all the technial indicators. However, the problem with MACD divergences is that they can go on forever and unfortunately take prices to a level that are not able to be sustained from a short position perspective. And once prices are so high - if they end up taking MACD with them again after some sideways the divergence is gone while the market is 100 points higher and you are deep underwater.<br /><br />Its a tricky play ....chaugnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-75498983899717329442009-11-11T09:28:56.679-05:002009-11-11T09:28:56.679-05:00I have been watching that MACD divergence forever....I have been watching that MACD divergence forever. And I believe like you said, as long as the market doesn't take the MACD up with it like last time in July, the market will keep turning back down. I mean, look at the volume starting Nov 2nd. It's been pethetic. <br /><br />Today...hoping to see the double top hold.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-37431137133571443452009-11-11T09:18:58.569-05:002009-11-11T09:18:58.569-05:00well nothing much has changed as anticipated. I am...well nothing much has changed as anticipated. I am actually excited believe it or not because this here has the making of marking some type of short term top.<br /><br />Do you remembner the post from beginning of november? http://chaugner.blogspot.com/2009/11/so-what-can-we-take-from-today.html<br /><br />We have not been able to get rid of this NASTY divergence here - yes bearish divergences do not play out anymore (we all know that) but this is a bit suspicious - the last time in july we had this strong of a rally we took MACD and other indicators with us on the upside. Not this time.<br /><br />I am still underwater on my puts and will be even more so today - I am not sure if its due to smaller size that I am not freaking out (probably) but I will most likely be adding my last chunk of 50% above 1110. Lets see how it plays out.chaugnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.com