tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post356377396524297439..comments2023-06-05T04:15:43.212-04:00Comments on Money Money Money: Breakdown or rebound?chaugnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.comBlogger37125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-66912759621806379872009-05-18T15:49:00.000-04:002009-05-18T15:49:00.000-04:00new post to make my current short term views a bit...new post to make my current short term views a bit clearer.chaugnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-52988743450855989882009-05-18T15:33:00.000-04:002009-05-18T15:33:00.000-04:00a bulls perspective at 3 Pm: they too are worried....a bulls perspective at 3 Pm: they too are worried.<br /><br />3:07 pm<br /><br />- Oil futures reversing at $60 price resistance. Strong resistance at that level. If we break above that level market should rally higher and if we fail to break market will recieve more selling pressure I believe.I’m tracking the energy markets because it is the sector that gave us an extra boost higher after the financials and XLFFINANCIAL SEL SPD <br />$12.12 <br />Change: +0.59 - +5.12%<br />as of 5/18/2009 3:15pm <br />. So when this falters we can be toast, since some profit taking has already occured in the tech and banks and it could continue if buyers give up.samamehtahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17905476190756761913noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-86921833154684798512009-05-18T15:29:00.000-04:002009-05-18T15:29:00.000-04:00i would think thats why you use your shorter-term ...i would think thats why you use your shorter-term hedges to capture hour-to-hour moves.samalamadingdongnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-57721106900993370942009-05-18T15:28:00.001-04:002009-05-18T15:28:00.001-04:00dingdong, glad seeing you back =)dingdong, glad seeing you back =)chaugnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-89774129801790851952009-05-18T15:28:00.000-04:002009-05-18T15:28:00.000-04:00samamehta, 1000 only if we get back to the 780-800...samamehta, 1000 only if we get back to the 780-800 range. Once we are there we can make the call based on confirmations.chaugnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-27603397656457762722009-05-18T15:27:00.000-04:002009-05-18T15:27:00.000-04:00even if I re-add them below 895 I will still have ...even if I re-add them below 895 I will still have improved the average price.chaugnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-57006691773322533852009-05-18T15:26:00.000-04:002009-05-18T15:26:00.000-04:00"i'm curious why you close out "longer-term" beari..."i'm curious why you close out "longer-term" bearish positions if you truly believe in 480. i would think you would use any move up in the market to add to the positions."<br /><br />because I trade what I see on the daily/60/15 min charts. Yeah I could just keep them here and come back in a few months but I manage positions quite actively. Closing out shorts this morning seemed to have been a good move in terms of improving my average price. I did readd a bit of the SDS at 900, but waiting for final push to 912 (or higher) that should be occurring either by 9:55-10:05 or 10:25-10:35 tomorrow. Will probably re-add all positions there or below 895.chaugnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-68313420788520273492009-05-18T15:18:00.000-04:002009-05-18T15:18:00.000-04:00Thanks for the updates.
Disclaimer:
"dingdong" is...Thanks for the updates.<br /><br />Disclaimer:<br />"dingdong" is not the same person as "samalamadingdong"... I've been "dingdong" since I was 11...dingdongnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-63021314278848388312009-05-18T15:16:00.000-04:002009-05-18T15:16:00.000-04:00what is your target above 912? 200 sma? around 935...what is your target above 912? 200 sma? around 935-940 as worst case secnario. 1000-1200 may be too far in this leg.samamehtahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17905476190756761913noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-37334495872388150352009-05-18T15:15:00.000-04:002009-05-18T15:15:00.000-04:00i'm curious why you close out "longer-term" bearis...i'm curious why you close out "longer-term" bearish positions if you truly believe in 480. i would think you would use any move up in the market to add to the positions.samalamadingdongnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-87442868500903588892009-05-18T15:12:00.000-04:002009-05-18T15:12:00.000-04:00do not meant to sound defensive ... just stating w...do not meant to sound defensive ... just stating what should have been in my long term view update this weekend =)chaugnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-71283447172684423552009-05-18T15:11:00.000-04:002009-05-18T15:11:00.000-04:00and another one (and I really wish I had not slack...and another one (and I really wish I had not slacked off this weekend to show the long term view better) - very long term - unless we get crazed inflation, something that should not be occurring for 2+ years, our final bottom will be lower then 400 on the S&P.<br /><br />I am kind of saying that at the risk of being ignored forever because I am a doom-sayer. I had mentioned before a statement like this is more meant as an observation of the problems we are in and not meant as a trade target and position target or anything in that regards - it may be called a philosophical statement that could be totally wrong because that type of prediction ... yeah its quite out there and it DOES NOT drive my trading and position management.chaugnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-1620355422831822902009-05-18T15:07:00.000-04:002009-05-18T15:07:00.000-04:00in summary just in case it did not come out ... 48...in summary just in case it did not come out ... 480 = YES it will happen and the chances of this happening this year are still VERY HIGH regardless of where we are moving by summer.<br /><br />Just want to make sure everyone understands those views correctly =)<br /><br />What becomes important now to identify patterns correctly is this next 4-6 week corrective move. It should bring us all the way back to the 780 range probably by end of next month. By that time frame we will have a much better idea of which long term scenario has the highest probabilities.chaugnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-81442052340451622122009-05-18T15:01:00.000-04:002009-05-18T15:01:00.000-04:00samalamadingdong, as you remember I had changed my...samalamadingdong, as you remember I had changed my outlook about 2 weeks ago when I had referred to another pattern building up that should not exceed 716 on the downside.<br /><br />Bear markets get at least one BIG 6+ month move that makes all the bad go away. And I have to admit, I think this is that move. While I am 100% confident of the 480 range (and quite a bit lower long term), the chances of seeing this by september are very slim. Seeing 912 again for the second time just lowered those probabilities another 50%.<br /><br />I wanted to post an update this weekend but got lazy again putting some attention to my significant other and other personal hobbies =)<br /><br />In a nut shell ... <br /><br />scenario one = 480 by sept<br />scenario two (the all is good) = 716-780 range, big leg up to 1000+, <700 by November.<br /><br />Have some of the graphs ready but wanted to go into more detail on what confirmations to look for and what invalidates one pattern over the other.chaugnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-47174954661982671442009-05-18T14:57:00.001-04:002009-05-18T14:57:00.001-04:00and yeah ... really is a perfect example of a step...and yeah ... really is a perfect example of a stepping day here :(<br /><br />even got the fake break down that normally leads to previous step bottom. Days like this normally close at their highs - something I do not expect for today but hey .... while I am feeling good about my position management today - my balance not feeling it.chaugnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-35112180989610269822009-05-18T14:57:00.000-04:002009-05-18T14:57:00.000-04:00chaugsy you're way too bearish here. no chance we...chaugsy you're way too bearish here. no chance we trade anywhere near your sub-500 target this year (or next). too much cash on the sidelines. buyers will not let this thing die...not yet atleast. 950-1000 spx definitely coming over the next couple of weeks.samalamadingdongnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-4668080167923214882009-05-18T14:50:00.000-04:002009-05-18T14:50:00.000-04:00it seems max pain for everyone. Bull or bear. Bull...it seems max pain for everyone. Bull or bear. Bulls got their scare last week when most of them were long. Bears getting their scare until tomorrow when all their gains evaporate just to capitulate before the next strong move down.<br /><br />We should be stopping all this either today, OR most likly tomorrow at the 912 range - My line in the sand.<br /><br />Next move down should be a minimum 1.61 ratio of move one. 930-880 = 50<br /><br />Next move 912 to 830-840. That should bring another leg up to close the month around 870 (as you remember from my previous comments last week).<br /><br />If we get a close of the month at 871, thats my perfect bear scenario.chaugnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-10416319539870901782009-05-18T14:28:00.000-04:002009-05-18T14:28:00.000-04:00It has broken down of rising channel. does this m...It has broken down of rising channel. does this mean end of the of the up move chris?samamehtahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17905476190756761913noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-40101455231535153922009-05-18T13:29:00.000-04:002009-05-18T13:29:00.000-04:00yeah looking very much like a top here. Continued ...yeah looking very much like a top here. Continued selling into this rally in large blocks with small advances higher in terms of volume.<br /><br />Tape buying is getting very very very very (again very) tiring ...chaugnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-13941252223066749822009-05-18T13:26:00.000-04:002009-05-18T13:26:00.000-04:00Just FYI, I had forgotten I had GTC for QID and it...Just FYI, I had forgotten I had GTC for QID and it just got filled. For your sake, we may see 907 or better. But I am ready for this to tank. Neg.divg all over. I am holding until 850.samamehtahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17905476190756761913noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-20134125799476381452009-05-18T13:21:00.000-04:002009-05-18T13:21:00.000-04:00Thanks very much Chris :-)Thanks very much Chris :-)adamnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-48056347991776762602009-05-18T13:20:00.000-04:002009-05-18T13:20:00.000-04:00Also look at RSI on the 1-min today. Not able to b...Also look at RSI on the 1-min today. Not able to breach below 40 here. So for now, unless the market tells me otherwise, one more level up.<br /><br />Hoping not to get caught with my pants down here for not shorting the 903 level (as you remember one of my key resistance points).chaugnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-42303815776534410432009-05-18T13:18:00.001-04:002009-05-18T13:18:00.001-04:00I call days like today "stepping days" ... cause t...I call days like today "stepping days" ... cause they kind of look like steps. Break into new range, sideways within that range, break into next range, sideways in that range, etc.<br /><br />Coupled with low volume this is setup to go one more level up. However, looking a bit toppy here, once it breaks back into previous range it should continue to the bottom of that range, however, do not like trading days like this.<br /><br />Still a bit fuming from not closing out on Friday ...chaugnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-87997826876612191342009-05-18T13:18:00.000-04:002009-05-18T13:18:00.000-04:00May be by wed. or friday?May be by wed. or friday?samamehtahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17905476190756761913noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-73916104133986979202009-05-18T13:16:00.000-04:002009-05-18T13:16:00.000-04:00no way jose =)no way jose =)chaugnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.com