tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post6000733657117248608..comments2023-06-05T04:15:43.212-04:00Comments on Money Money Money: Follow through?chaugnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-20345945972334483652009-03-11T14:25:00.000-04:002009-03-11T14:25:00.000-04:00Looks like we're back in the downward channel we s...Looks like we're back in the downward channel we started earlier. The bulls tried to make a move (fake breakout) but didn't have the strength. The 50 sma on a 5-min chart acted as good resistance... luckily for me my stop was just above.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-29326662481916874322009-03-11T14:13:00.000-04:002009-03-11T14:13:00.000-04:00there is a small (very small) chance of a turn aro...there is a small (very small) chance of a turn around here to the upside. But probability of that occuring is very low. If it does happen expect it to be black on white, with extreme strength. Do not see this occuring from here but keep it in the back of your head =)chaugnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-76531480366594805252009-03-11T14:09:00.000-04:002009-03-11T14:09:00.000-04:00George thanks for clearing it up and yes you are c...George thanks for clearing it up and yes you are correct.<BR/><BR/>Sam, yes, you remember the significance of the 724, we now retested it as resistance and did not manage to break it. More and more signs are poiniting towards the top having formed. Good catch.chaugnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-72287417923799916772009-03-11T14:08:00.000-04:002009-03-11T14:08:00.000-04:00are we there confirming top?are we there confirming top?samamehtahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17905476190756761913noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-15265831001019474102009-03-11T13:33:00.000-04:002009-03-11T13:33:00.000-04:00Nice explanation, just want to quickly add somethi...Nice explanation, just want to quickly add something. When chaugner says 33% at a time, I assume he means real dollar value and not the number of shares. When you buy the same dollar amount at each level (as opposed to the same number of shares), you are 'dollar cost averaging'... so you end up buying more shares at the lower prices than you did at the higher prices, bringing your average cost down.<BR/><BR/>Ex:<BR/>Buy 100 shares @ 20 and 100 shares @ 10 = 200 shares @ average cost of 15 ($3000 out of pocket)<BR/>Using DCA, buy $1500 @ 20 and $1500 @ 10 = 225 shares at average cost of 13.33 (same $3000)<BR/><BR/><BR/>Btw, we all make mistakes, and I make a bunch more than you do! I'm sure your blog followers are still very grateful for your analysis. I know I am. :)<BR/><BR/>730-732 is also where we gapped down on 3/2 open, very strong resistance. <BR/><BR/>I agree that the overall picture points down. Seems people realize that Citi being profitable for 2 months, not including write downs, is not a good excuse to buy! Financials have lost their strength, oil has broken below short-term support, gold is making a nice run, and VIX is heading back towards 45-46 level. Nice trending grind down in the market today.<BR/><BR/>Thanks again.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-31052580080081996922009-03-11T13:11:00.000-04:002009-03-11T13:11:00.000-04:00Thanks a lot. This makes sense. Thanks again for b...Thanks a lot. This makes sense. Thanks again for being patientsamamehtahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17905476190756761913noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-63472034337568545992009-03-11T13:07:00.000-04:002009-03-11T13:07:00.000-04:00swing trade is just taking a position within an ex...swing trade is just taking a position within an expected trend. For example if we reach the upper/lower range (think bollingers) for a major trend. I take a swing position from one end of the range towards the other end of the range (or the 50% level depending on instrument being traded and strength of the trend)chaugnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-49107348605065144472009-03-11T13:05:00.000-04:002009-03-11T13:05:00.000-04:00fading into a position. Lets take today as an exam...fading into a position. Lets take today as an example if it would have played out as I initially assumed. We have a large range for an entry position of 731 and 741. I do not know what the top is but I know that ANY entry in this range will be profitable as it will reverse.<BR/><BR/>I would take one short at 731 with 33% of my stake, the market continues rallying and I take another 33% at the 735, market continues rallying and my position shows losses, once we reach 741 I enter my last 33%. While my position is in the red the average price is around 735 so we only need to drop to 735 to break even, anything lower then that and you will see gains.<BR/><BR/>On the other hand if we reach 731 and then drop from there I am already in a winning position and can then use the remaining 66% at other retracement levels (724, 716) before I am fully invested.<BR/><BR/>I RARELY fade as it carries a lot of risk. What if it goes to 750? then I have a HUGE position that will have quite a few losses. Its just a strategy that when used correctly gives you great entries. Many times in the past tops were not based on price but time (lets say a one hour window). I do not know what price it will be at the top but I can start taking positions at different time intervals (33% every 20 minutes).<BR/><BR/>Ok a bit more then one sentence.chaugnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-85368666137597476322009-03-11T12:56:00.000-04:002009-03-11T12:56:00.000-04:00could you share one liner on difference between fa...could you share one liner on difference between fade and swing. i do understand fade as get in little at a time?samamehtahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17905476190756761913noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-46775120951317632132009-03-11T12:50:00.000-04:002009-03-11T12:50:00.000-04:00I made quite a mistake yesterday, something I over...I made quite a mistake yesterday, something I overlooked (partially to blame on my workstation at home that was dying a slow death with my 5 trade desktops and all the data for the day). 731 was a VERY important number I missed and could have been the perfect short entry. I forgot to switch to my "end of day" desktop which shows the 731 as a 23% retracement of our MAIN high at 945. A little bit mad at myself for not having done my proper review there as I could have given us a great window to fade into a short (731/738/741). While I do not like fades as much, this swing position would have justified the addtional risk.<BR/><BR/>Again I am stating some of this before we have all of our signs in place but it makes sense when looking at the overall picture. Of course tomorrow we have the details on possible regulatory changes that could throw us quite a curve ball so we shall see.chaugnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-33082277017586720082009-03-11T12:42:00.000-04:002009-03-11T12:42:00.000-04:00are we saying that the close today is unlikely to ...are we saying that the close today is unlikely to be 724 because we didnt test the mid 730 and that were back on our trend down towards 650?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-66570451998913202162009-03-11T12:30:00.000-04:002009-03-11T12:30:00.000-04:00breakdown should be occuring before 1:00 with a po...breakdown should be occuring before 1:00 with a possible bottom of 710 before we see some bounce.chaugnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-18590599158074577352009-03-11T11:38:00.000-04:002009-03-11T11:38:00.000-04:00while I rather wait to post this, I am very confid...while I rather wait to post this, I am very confident now that our top is in for this run and we will continue towards our mid term targets. Of course I could get burned since I am posting this before some required confirmations but I am pretty confident.chaugnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-18988223726121418402009-03-11T11:23:00.000-04:002009-03-11T11:23:00.000-04:00Thanks for your excellent analysis!Thanks for your excellent analysis!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-17460017228671958502009-03-11T10:02:00.000-04:002009-03-11T10:02:00.000-04:00Just read your review, as always great comments! T...Just read your review, as always great comments! Thank you.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com