tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post8486387238211448153..comments2023-06-05T04:15:43.212-04:00Comments on Money Money Money: Re-emphasize on the channelchaugnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.comBlogger27125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-42071239003054148152009-04-15T18:04:00.000-04:002009-04-15T18:04:00.000-04:00I agree with you. SDS is more stable. SRS has had ...I agree with you. SDS is more stable. SRS has had bigger moves, although of lower value in the couple of days. SRS 31-36, SDS 67-70. In any case, some poeple play both FAZ and FAS as spread. Dou know how does that work. If one is moving better than other, you have to be in right direction or is it safe in both directions--long and short. The claim is that you have guranteed return --alomost gaureented.samamehtahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17905476190756761913noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-46862029782953258602009-04-15T16:27:00.000-04:002009-04-15T16:27:00.000-04:00No idea where we are headed. And as Chaugner's old...No idea where we are headed. And as Chaugner's old quote used to say: "If you don't know where you are going, don't speed up." Or something to that effect.<br /><br />If I had to throw my hat into the ring (and trust me, this hat has many ashen burn marks on it), I'd say we will top out this week or close enough if we continue higher from here. Possibly a blow off top, similar to what happened in 2002 when we were bouncing off the bottom (and no I don't think we've reached the bottom). Everyone seems to be looking for that 870-875 range. Therefore if things go as they have been, I wouldn't be surprised to see it goes a tad higher, just to scare the last shorts, out of their shorts. If we approach that 856 range again it probably would be okay to start scaling into your short positions depending on your time frame. I want to build a large position I can ideally ride for a swing trade down to the low 800's at bare minimum. To do this I probably won't use anything more exotic than SDS, since the decay isn't that bad. FAZ is also starting to look tasty again if the finnies (RIFIN) establishes a double top here. That thing is an animal though and I've been it's meal one too many times. Use small, manageable positions -- don't end up in an after school special like myself.schismatichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16041636923976988984noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-2242047720672066022009-04-15T15:54:00.000-04:002009-04-15T15:54:00.000-04:00any idea where we are headed?any idea where we are headed?samamehtahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17905476190756761913noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-20168881250574735042009-04-15T15:42:00.000-04:002009-04-15T15:42:00.000-04:00crazy markets. And yeah, date is set for this week...crazy markets. And yeah, date is set for this weekend. Wonder what is going to happen? lol, it would be very ironic if we make a top here in the next few days.chaugnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-64240860385367940702009-04-15T14:08:00.000-04:002009-04-15T14:08:00.000-04:00I'm waiting to see if Martin Armstrong's theory is...I'm waiting to see if Martin Armstrong's theory is really gonna play out to the day, haha. Depending on how you crunch the decimal points, something major would have to occur on thursday, friday or monday. I'll shit my pants if it does. Amazingly all the stars seem to be aligning for a major move of some sort.schismatichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16041636923976988984noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-83455668062699513652009-04-15T13:56:00.000-04:002009-04-15T13:56:00.000-04:00Never mind, our day will come soon, i'm sure.Never mind, our day will come soon, i'm sure.Adamnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-22690850021205234082009-04-15T13:32:00.000-04:002009-04-15T13:32:00.000-04:00quite frustrating indeed. No volume at all, and th...quite frustrating indeed. No volume at all, and the one spike on volume stopped me out just to drop after wards. All done for the day trade wise. Was up nicely earlier but started getting trigger happy and got back to break even. That's what I get for over trading.chaugnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-16753321911257800622009-04-15T12:33:00.000-04:002009-04-15T12:33:00.000-04:00quite frustrating really...no real direction...alm...quite frustrating really...no real direction...almost as if the market is waiting for something...possibly the tech earnings?...i dont know.Adamnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-30710385047663263462009-04-15T12:16:00.000-04:002009-04-15T12:16:00.000-04:00not seeing the volume here for a strong down turn....not seeing the volume here for a strong down turn. Market has 5 more minutes, if we will not drop in the next 5 I will exit current short (or at least minimize with tighter stop).chaugnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-51610049722426885272009-04-15T12:03:00.000-04:002009-04-15T12:03:00.000-04:00yeah went short earlier and got stopped. Thinking ...yeah went short earlier and got stopped. Thinking about trying one more time.chaugnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-89814200837828972252009-04-15T12:02:00.000-04:002009-04-15T12:02:00.000-04:00getting close to our top of the day...thinking of ...getting close to our top of the day...thinking of going shortAdamnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-22172048521531540942009-04-15T11:29:00.000-04:002009-04-15T11:29:00.000-04:00Thank you for the update.Thank you for the update.Adamnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-80941103417922194392009-04-15T11:23:00.000-04:002009-04-15T11:23:00.000-04:00Adam, just went long but do not expect it to go ve...Adam, just went long but do not expect it to go very high today. We retraced beyond the 62% which is a bit bearish and as a result, I do not expect a new high to be made today.chaugnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-63078521317835595652009-04-15T11:20:00.000-04:002009-04-15T11:20:00.000-04:00heya, yeah been a lot more active and supporting s...heya, yeah been a lot more active and supporting some of my statements with more facts to make it easier to understand.<br /><br />I use 3 cycles for daily moves (like the long this morning, closed out on the top off every cycle), same as yesterday afternoon, 3 cycle moves.<br /><br />For longer term moves, while I use Elliot Wave, I only apply it to longer term patterns (1+ year). When trading in a channel I have seen it many times that a pattern changes after 5 moves are completed, regardless if they are Elliot wave or not (as elliot wave has specific requirements for each cycle in terms of size and retracements).<br /><br />And regarding FIBs on horizontal, been using this a lot in the past 4-5 months and been very successful at it. As you remember some of my change of trend calls are based off this (in addition to other patterns and variables). Its a great addition to a trade plan or pattern but generally not as strong if used on its own without any supporting pattern.chaugnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-15949587000329442632009-04-15T11:04:00.000-04:002009-04-15T11:04:00.000-04:00Chaugner. What's up, buddy? I see you are stepping...Chaugner. What's up, buddy? I see you are stepping up the posts! Good stuff.<br /><br />I've never used fibs on a horizontal perspective -- quite interesting. When you say "we have completed 5 cycles of this channel," are you referring to EW or is 5 cycles just the norm for the completion of a given channel?schismatichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16041636923976988984noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-49847766481629600322009-04-15T10:40:00.000-04:002009-04-15T10:40:00.000-04:00seem to be forming a small decending wedgeseem to be forming a small decending wedgeAdamnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-36497360460027144652009-04-15T10:32:00.000-04:002009-04-15T10:32:00.000-04:00re entry for short long?re entry for short long?Adamnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-32223112989346681912009-04-15T10:11:00.000-04:002009-04-15T10:11:00.000-04:00840-841 but depends on how we continue here. Had a...840-841 but depends on how we continue here. Had another long as well (futures) that I just closed out. A bit too fast too soon. But I could be wrong and we just keep on going which will then require to switch positions to short.chaugnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-92005980006380330252009-04-15T10:10:00.000-04:002009-04-15T10:10:00.000-04:00hoping for more upside as per your twitter update....hoping for more upside as per your twitter update...im waiting for it to retrace back down for a better entry for a short long...any thoughts on where it may retrace back to??...Adamnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-45916600052093743612009-04-15T09:57:00.000-04:002009-04-15T09:57:00.000-04:00its possible. Need to wait and see. Will add long ...its possible. Need to wait and see. Will add long once we fill gap and make it 2 pts above previous close.chaugnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-82784393437746018522009-04-15T09:56:00.000-04:002009-04-15T09:56:00.000-04:00on the button again! well done. i think you menti...on the button again! well done. i think you mentioned it topping out around 854-856 once we got to this stage.Adamnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-64070226915748996702009-04-15T09:50:00.000-04:002009-04-15T09:50:00.000-04:00reason I did not consider it a break is due to pre...reason I did not consider it a break is due to pre-market having pushed it over the support range. We need to make a break above 838 here in the next 15 minutes, otherwise we may have seen the top of the day and will trend lower.chaugnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-75009461196544475532009-04-15T09:48:00.000-04:002009-04-15T09:48:00.000-04:00appreciated.appreciated.Adamnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-32337870222603445772009-04-15T09:44:00.000-04:002009-04-15T09:44:00.000-04:00as per twitter I am long at the moment. Watching i...as per twitter I am long at the moment. Watching it closely to make sure its not just a GAP fill. As per this post I am expecting a bit of a run up to make a lower top, do not think it will occur today but possible.chaugnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-74671676587031009392009-04-15T09:43:00.000-04:002009-04-15T09:43:00.000-04:00very close....835.58...still on course or do you t...very close....835.58...still on course or do you think it was a break and ptential to see 826-828?Adamnoreply@blogger.com