tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-58889076302425689252024-03-13T17:29:54.756-04:00Money Money Moneychaugnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.comBlogger565125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-1380080792136960102010-12-13T10:42:00.002-05:002010-12-13T10:43:11.636-05:00Still here - and short nowWhile I have been busy working hard and not spending much time on the markets I just took a decent size short position here with stop just at high of day. Never thought we would get to the 1245 but here we are and here I am trying a position with what seems a good risk/reward ratio trade.chaugnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-17313683599001905472010-11-03T13:00:00.001-04:002010-11-03T13:00:59.663-04:00Everyone ready for the FED meeting today?chaugnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-20845755589420480792010-10-12T15:40:00.001-04:002010-10-12T15:40:52.712-04:00Short again @ 1172 SPXI am sure you expected me to short here =)chaugnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-41360057411260176492010-10-04T11:46:00.002-04:002010-10-04T11:53:37.724-04:00Daily Chart Musings<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfqK0RCFITi7xZaCnGKkuVOw2taKJoo4HRJgmaBvuG7fd_gtQfINPlOKuCYe2P3Mi9KaE7RKTV4ddabRSmJ2qno8lxay7N4yewPUOCyguIyTM9S_OreQ_N25SILnL8Y46mvpFd6G2_4sk/s1600/inxdaily.gif"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 226px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfqK0RCFITi7xZaCnGKkuVOw2taKJoo4HRJgmaBvuG7fd_gtQfINPlOKuCYe2P3Mi9KaE7RKTV4ddabRSmJ2qno8lxay7N4yewPUOCyguIyTM9S_OreQ_N25SILnL8Y46mvpFd6G2_4sk/s400/inxdaily.gif" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5524217852513034082" /></a><br /><div>Ok here is a more detailed update. We have a lot going on at the moment and the market is poised for a directional change. At this point I am considering three distinct scenarios.</div><div><br /></div><div>1) Breakout to the upside - during this scenario we will overcome the MACD bearish cross and may remain at a "close-to-zero" MACD divergence. The market has done this before and considering that everything is bullish it can do so again. A break on the upside would be a challenging technical endeavor as we have to overcome the Jan 2010 resistance.</div><div><br /></div><div>2) Pull back to MA cluster - we have a HUGE extremely tight cluster of key moving averages. Ranging from 20/50/200 dailies and 34 exp. All of those are extremely bullish at the moment and are clustered in a 25 pt range. Its extremely rare for all of those averages to converge in such a tight range.</div><div><br /></div><div>3) Bearish ABCD for a larger AB with C to come - the light blue lines could indicate a quite bearish gartley pattern and at the same time setting up for our B leg having completed last week thursday and now entering Leg C towards new lows below 1K.</div><div><br /></div><div>This week will be crucial to let us know what pattern will play out. The highest probabilities lie within scenario 2, scenario 1 and 2 are considered the lowest probable scenarios but depending on price action below 1130SPX we can identify what the market holds for us.</div>chaugnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-68535639666240454132010-10-01T10:05:00.002-04:002010-10-01T13:24:11.285-04:00Adding to ShortsAdded to shorts here again at 1145 with stop at 1159 SPX.<div><br /></div><div><b>1:22PM</b>: A bit concerned at this sideways action here around the 1145. I took a small bit off the position here just to minimize some of the risk. Improved my avg price slightly compared to yesterday so thats great, but overall getting a bit concerned by not seeing enough follow through. I am still confident that we may see more selling into the last 1.5 hours but rather be safe especially with the upcoming weekend and the standard sunday night bear scare.</div>chaugnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-65079842987479806112010-09-30T11:10:00.003-04:002010-09-30T11:12:43.040-04:00Possible HighIt is very possible that we just made a short to mid term top in this range here. I was expecting us to get a few points higher but I believe we topped on the short term. I currently hold no position but am looking to go short again for the next 5 days at the minimum.<div><br /></div><div>We have 2 scenarios that can unfold here, a standard pull back towards the bullish daily moving averages which is step 1, and a potential for a much more bearish formation that at this point I will give little credibility.</div><div><br /></div><div>The afternoon and tomorrow morning will be a deciding factor for the next 1-2 weeks. I will post a more detailed update tonight or tomorrow morning with a few more technical justifications.</div>chaugnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-6481510839961041512010-09-20T10:39:00.003-04:002010-09-20T10:41:33.125-04:00Short ES againTrying my luck again as per twitter. Bulls are in control hence a tight stop on this position.chaugnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-15718349005059869792010-09-13T11:02:00.005-04:002010-09-13T12:25:43.561-04:00Long time no talk - short ES hereBeen quite busy with work but following the market every day. Been a very patient bear in hiding but came out today and just opened a new short position via ESZ10 @ 1118 with a stop of 6pts.<div><br /></div><div>Wish us luck =) </div><div><br /></div><div>EDIT: stops will likely be adjusted within the next 2 hours.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>11:11AM</b>: stops moved to a tick above HOD</div><div><br /></div><div><b>11:18AM</b>: we will likely see a retest of the highs today with a potential for a marginal 2 pt higher high. Will keep stops a bit flexible on part of the position.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>12:25PM</b>: stops at breakeven now and "walking away" - this should be setting up for a move towards 1102SPX and possibly into the 108X next.</div>chaugnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-46643609315446958132010-08-23T16:11:00.002-04:002010-08-23T16:14:02.116-04:00Long ES @ closeTook a long position into the close today. Tight stop 2 pts below LOD.<div><br /></div><div>Sorry for having been MIA but between travel and being a bit sick have not had much time to post but following every day. We are setting up for a nice divergence again on the decl/adv ratio on the daily, so we have a high chance that todays LOD will not be broken.</div><div><br /></div><div>However, on the bearish side, this is a perfect close for a nice GAP down below support and strong follow through lower for tomorrow. So I am playing it a bit on the cautious side here as I do not want to get caught holding a looser.</div>chaugnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-91465615117512862202010-08-05T14:23:00.004-04:002010-08-05T14:55:01.225-04:00Expanding Triangle with Time Fibs<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0dyKnMd_0oP6qpOQNmUq61V88u7mo9Ym85-dCq-T2mMoD5qwTFM9no44deIkyS9aY1lyx0DrEM_eqZOxfQ9OTFZCJLDW3t8VCu_8VbZ1YGKdI36PFJcHfwDVfRtSd1qryoDAG5jrn540/s1600/wishfulthinking.GIF"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 206px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0dyKnMd_0oP6qpOQNmUq61V88u7mo9Ym85-dCq-T2mMoD5qwTFM9no44deIkyS9aY1lyx0DrEM_eqZOxfQ9OTFZCJLDW3t8VCu_8VbZ1YGKdI36PFJcHfwDVfRtSd1qryoDAG5jrn540/s400/wishfulthinking.GIF" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5501993196197818258" /></a><br /><div>This is something I have been playing with the past few days. A very unlikely scenario but one that could be used for a trade with a limited amount of risk. Why limited? </div><div><br /></div><div>So take a short at those levels (anywhere from 1140-1150) with a stop around 1180. If market keeps on trucking towards 1170, double down on position there and get out on retracement (you dont need much of a retracement to exit position at break even or with small loss).</div><div><br /></div><div>If the market retraces back towards 1100, then it gets a bit tricky. Depending on how it bounces (likely back to retest 1130) and how the coming rally will resolve technically one can make some great calls on whether this pattern will come true. On break you can double down on your position likely around 1080 with a stop at the recent rally high (the rally off 1100).</div><div><br /></div><div>This could turn out to be an extremely low risk trade with a potential for some really nice gains. As this is a longer term trade you can start position sizes quite small without too much pain if we are wrong.</div><div><br /></div><div>In terms of giving this pattern credit here, I would say maybe 3 out of 10, so its not something I feel quite strong about but the risk/reward makes this a bit more interesting.</div><div><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6LPj4UZwLqWVw_H3Ci6MNohis8uYuRznNfsgXVCG_Hzj8Smp985D6xSXHjsX9tzFybQsrr3qAvyJ6UIiFniT5ybpaRPXemDGndj1b5mMhIMSSGXEXSqReYqGQGKF-dEIsc01GvhyphenhyphentXC0/s1600/timefibs.GIF"><img style="text-align: left;display: block; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: auto; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 216px; " src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6LPj4UZwLqWVw_H3Ci6MNohis8uYuRznNfsgXVCG_Hzj8Smp985D6xSXHjsX9tzFybQsrr3qAvyJ6UIiFniT5ybpaRPXemDGndj1b5mMhIMSSGXEXSqReYqGQGKF-dEIsc01GvhyphenhyphentXC0/s400/timefibs.GIF" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5501999304561239538" /></a><div><br /></div><div>Also take a look at the time relationships here - from top to bottom, 38% hit the first top, 61% could be inline with our upside targets towards next week right between 1140-1150.</div></div>chaugnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-29722708191799856252010-08-03T12:45:00.002-04:002010-08-03T12:49:44.960-04:00USDJPY - really?Well, my third try yet again ended without much gains. We did test a key area in the 85.6X range today which is quite significant. At this point, I am going to hold out before another attempt to see how today develops on this pair. Three tries, no profits, but no losses either which is great.<div><br /></div><div>Based on the intra day chart we may be forming a continuation pattern here that will lead prices to possibly below 85 where I will give it a try again. We have been making new lows but very marginal on each new push lower. Advances are getting smaller, much smaller, and declines are getting a lot smaller as well. Its coiling here nicely and could still go either way. Many things are pointing up but the hesitation to breakout of the very tight channel towards the upside has me a bit concerned that we may have a big washout coming before finally making a move higher - whether this will be a retracement on the daily chart to continue lower or of course a bigger leg towards the upside.</div><div><br /></div><div>Sorry for having been so focused on FX markets recently. I will be posting more SPX updates soon as well.</div>chaugnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-52626880174500497472010-07-30T09:07:00.008-04:002010-07-30T15:53:21.596-04:00Third try on USDJPY<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkRbr2KR-wTmCxJr998XGo6xZ4DJp4L_1YgqevokKFwgU0iz-EQG3VA9VCexhEX8Vn1hIH2pcZ1SXsNpKBTpTw2YTW2sqTr9dE3OFSA3H2kfx4YcGtwKhU9EdCQke71TEg56TTb6WRzWo/s1600/usdjpy_480.GIF"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 214px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkRbr2KR-wTmCxJr998XGo6xZ4DJp4L_1YgqevokKFwgU0iz-EQG3VA9VCexhEX8Vn1hIH2pcZ1SXsNpKBTpTw2YTW2sqTr9dE3OFSA3H2kfx4YcGtwKhU9EdCQke71TEg56TTb6WRzWo/s400/usdjpy_480.GIF" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5499687372641525602" /></a><br />As per twitter I did two more attempts today at USDJPY. The original one from 2 weeks back was closed out with minor gains. Unfortunately today I got caught again by having my stop a tad too close (yeah yeah but currencies I am afraid for a wide stop). After seeing the reversal I jumped right back in (this time with a much larger position) and hopefully this was it. We have some nice bullish divergences on this pair in addition to the bollinger support and of course the big bullish descending wedge. So three signs of a good long trade here and we are getting close to completing the wedge. Either a breakdown lower or of course a breakout of the pattern to move towards higher targets.<div><br /></div><div>Of course this could be a technical bounce due to quite a run down in the past 3 days. We have to determine how this unfolds during the day today. If we can recapture the 86.45 range before noon we should have more room on the upside, If we stop there and are not able to get above it by mid afternoon it may make new lows below 86 and move towards the big 85 (round and middle).</div><div><br /></div><div>Two more attempts left after this one. I'll be sure to take some partials this time though to try to balance out the stop from today.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>9:55AM</b>: talking about swift reversals lol - recaptured the 86.45 range here and hopefully moving higher. This here could be the breakout of the steep 3 day down channel if we can get to 86.9 next.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>3:50PM</b>: well it looks like 86.45 is proving to be quite difficult to overcome. I still think this position is good (well of course I am long) but need to see a strong close above 86.45 on Monday with a test at the 87 range at least (and exceeding todays rally high around 86.7). </div><div><br /></div><div>Have a good weekend all.</div>chaugnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-28838027606165460172010-07-23T15:09:00.003-04:002010-07-23T15:16:32.534-04:00I guess it was blue !!!<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhM2Xxnszcktgt6xJa-6SGiBNi2eI00VNfD5ZP2PyEo4C1gt4I_4X9RZVhLE1hUSAZ5234F_xkioZtSH8Bg90MNyn9SlHH5VV1D74KsHYr6gQaMnyPbaPcYkEhCYq4hXLughsi-7BO2uPs/s1600/whatnow.GIF"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 186px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhM2Xxnszcktgt6xJa-6SGiBNi2eI00VNfD5ZP2PyEo4C1gt4I_4X9RZVhLE1hUSAZ5234F_xkioZtSH8Bg90MNyn9SlHH5VV1D74KsHYr6gQaMnyPbaPcYkEhCYq4hXLughsi-7BO2uPs/s400/whatnow.GIF" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5497181245535518594" /></a><br />Well, much to my dismay we broke out on the upside. Why dismay? Because I was not able to put on my long position again. I had been looking to re-enter my longs that were closed out around the 108X SPX range. Now you know how much I love double FIBs and I totally missed that one. Take a look at the blue circle there - double fibs are areas of big importance and it slipped through my fingers.<div><br /></div><div>Now we have a big band of resistence ahead as you can see from the wide blue rectangle but this is supported by a nice cup/handle, double FIBs and the proper pull backs to break on the upside now. Now we pulled back 50% off our highs before bouncing in the last few days - I hate 50% retracement because you never know what it really is until the move has resolved, now we know.</div><div><br /></div><div>At this point, I have no choice but to wait for this to unfold towards its upside targets. I strongly believe that going into the weekend and of course our big sunday night many shorts will not want to put a position on here so the only sellers are bulls to take profits, but those are no-where to be found as many are expecting a break here. And yes I know, if everyone expects it - well it wont break. That of course is always a possibility but this market has made a point here - and looks ready to go to the moon even if we have some last hour weakness.</div>chaugnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-17889732547272598402010-07-21T15:41:00.001-04:002010-07-21T15:42:38.539-04:00Blue or Blue?<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSOA3I7EW-A4VElTrL_COK1qWeBwkyHXqm7uD-0y5Eo9hvGrRhoEp64RFHwrnEXVvvUPHCgGiNvHb419Ku6vM_11kaTLfvEggZvheyDWQjJeEsGsQuGR9uUxT8YBqjlsL0Ddaqr5njMfk/s1600/blueorblue.GIF"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 207px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSOA3I7EW-A4VElTrL_COK1qWeBwkyHXqm7uD-0y5Eo9hvGrRhoEp64RFHwrnEXVvvUPHCgGiNvHb419Ku6vM_11kaTLfvEggZvheyDWQjJeEsGsQuGR9uUxT8YBqjlsL0Ddaqr5njMfk/s400/blueorblue.GIF" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5496447246736332850" /></a>chaugnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-7904193181244058762010-07-20T09:12:00.000-04:002010-07-20T09:13:56.311-04:00Am I alone here?Well, I have been a lot more active in the past weeks and months. I primarily use this blog to share my personal views and positions.<div><br /></div><div>Is anyone still reading here? Is this information helpful? Would you like to see something different?</div><div><br /></div><div>Feedback would be appreciated. Have a great day all =)</div>chaugnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-9355558842620784582010-07-20T08:55:00.004-04:002010-07-20T09:10:58.030-04:00So I was wrong - maybe?Well, price action since Friday has painted a very clear picture. While I did take a long yesterday I was very concerned with the lack of follow through and as a result closed out all longs again with some decent short term gains. Lucky me ....<div><br /></div><div>While USDJPY is still above my entry price (and what a nice/lucky entry that was) but its forming what I believe may be a bear flag (or bull flag depending on how you look at it). This pair really needs to make a move above 87.2 here in the next 8 hours or we will see lower prices.</div><div><br /></div><div>SPX wise, we just hit the 50% retracement on ES and hit our magic round number of 600 on TF (russell) twice yesterday and overnight. ES making new lows while Russell is able to bounce of yesterdays low. If we are to break our overnight low we have a good 10 pts to go on the downside before any bounce can develop. Key support on ES is in the 1039-1041 range and this should come with STRONG buying and will also correspond to a 61% retracement so regardless of morning price action I will have big limit orders waiting in the range for futures and etfs.</div><div><br /></div><div>For today, we are looking for continued weakness, first at our overnight lows in the 1050 range (are we here already again?) and of course 1041 on break of the low.</div><div><br /></div><div>Another thing I wanted to talk about is the "tripple" channel patterns. Many times when looking at any chart by the time a price channel is hit for the third time either on the upside or downside the trend has an extremely high probability of changing. My longer term readers may remember - 4th time does not happen and generally will lead to a break or continuation to develop into something new.</div><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivRYkg9V1EVu_yj4LQtdUnN8DLIlDd7HAZtb8lhRJrgsAGcmTndQmyoL6LQLgjoBa6gjREL6Ybn0m73J4Y1zlKYK7OmACpdY4QG7W70OctIvaDva5s_LsL7yM0raSgbyoFhRQLrIVm06M/s1600/tripplebreak.GIF"></a><div><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivRYkg9V1EVu_yj4LQtdUnN8DLIlDd7HAZtb8lhRJrgsAGcmTndQmyoL6LQLgjoBa6gjREL6Ybn0m73J4Y1zlKYK7OmACpdY4QG7W70OctIvaDva5s_LsL7yM0raSgbyoFhRQLrIVm06M/s1600/tripplebreak.GIF"><img style="text-align: left;display: block; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: auto; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 207px; " src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivRYkg9V1EVu_yj4LQtdUnN8DLIlDd7HAZtb8lhRJrgsAGcmTndQmyoL6LQLgjoBa6gjREL6Ybn0m73J4Y1zlKYK7OmACpdY4QG7W70OctIvaDva5s_LsL7yM0raSgbyoFhRQLrIVm06M/s400/tripplebreak.GIF" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5495973862800259954" /></a></div><br />The dark blue was a retest of the previous low so it could be ruled out. As you can see we had three tests on the upside and 3 (or 4 if you count the re-test of the important low). From here on out - the next test on that trendline WILL result in a break. The market is about probabilities and scenarios that can unfold and its extremely rare for me to use statements such as "will, is going to" - this is one of those times.<div></div><div><br /></div><div>IF we are to get back to the lower part of the trendline (which also means a new low) we will see selling accelerate by a HUGE amount - trust me, it will be quite strong and fast but I give this the lowest chance of happening.</div><div><br /></div><div>Overall I am still looking for a bullish continuation and "hopefully" (here I go again with choice of words) a strong bounce followed of the targets identified above in the 1039-1041 ES range. We may never get there and reverse before but that would also give us a great sign allowing us to get back into longs on fall back to 1075 after the 1085 re-test.</div><div><br /></div><div>Longer term, the month of July is still extremely important from a weekly and monthly chart perspective. By the end of the year we will be looking back at those specific weekly and monthly charts and know why the market turned the way it will turn this month.</div>chaugnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-11996312314166469532010-07-19T14:53:00.003-04:002010-07-19T14:57:04.049-04:00Long and OutAs per twitter I took a nice long position at 1057.75 this morning (after one failed attempt) and closed out at 1065/1068 (50% each). While it is looking rather bullish here I am a bit concerned with many sectors having broken the lows by a bit too much today.<div><br /></div><div>We had mentioned this morning that any break lower needs to get reversed very fast - it did but I am not seeing the follow through I would like and as a result rather go into tomorrow all cash. I still have my FX position - this will be kept for a while but out of everything now.</div><div><br /></div><div>Want to see how the market reacts between 1080 and 1065 over the coming days to try to plan a new entry either on the short or long side.</div>chaugnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-42873069567842062572010-07-19T08:23:00.003-04:002010-07-19T09:07:08.345-04:00Where do we go?Well Friday was an incredible day in terms of price power. Its been a long time since we have seen such a relentless selling day without any attempts to buy the dip. I have to admit, while I was assuming a shakeout was occurring such price action is extremely bearish.<div><br /></div><div>On a SPX cash basis we retraced a full 38% which can be considered bullish as a W4 retracement. On the other hand when major bottoms are made the second wave retracement of a new bull leg generally retraces a lot less and many times does not even hit the 50% or the "valid" 61% level - again bullish. When looking at specific sectors many have seen healthy pull backs but remain above key support that was broken out of sharply the week before last.</div><div><br /></div><div>From here its quite simple - a break of Fridays cash hours low and any upside this week should be sold, if however we can remain above Fridays cash low and are able to recapture 1080SPX on a close basis by wednesday we are likely going to see a break of our recent highs around 1099SPX.</div><div><br /></div><div>The market still has to overcome the bearish weekly and monthly charts - however, both of them will turn extremely bullish if the weekly can manage to take out last weeks high and the monthly can see a close above 1114SPX. We have 2 trade weeks left and a break of those levels will pave the road for new highs to come.</div><div><br /></div><div>So - believe it or not - a LOT is riding on Fridays low.</div><div><br /></div><div>USDJPY seems to be working in my favor now, on the first counter trend attempt - could it be? Its likely we may see a retest of the current lows on that pair but it could just keep on running from here. As posted last week, this pair has done quite sharp and strong reversals in the past and if you are able to catch one of them you have a chance for some great gains. Ultimately I am looking for this pair to break out of the 1.5 year down trending channel and continue on the upside. First target is 92 and after that re-capture the 98 levels.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>EDIT</b>: If we are to see a retest of 1058 it can only be "allowed" today and needs to reverse above 1064 within 120 minutes of cash hours.</div>chaugnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-52444984107208529672010-07-16T15:29:00.002-04:002010-07-16T15:31:12.541-04:00Knife catchingas per twitter just took a long ES @ 1059.75 with one point stop ... been watching this relentless selling here and was waiting for the final push lower to enter a long scalp. Lets see if this has any legs into the close - doubt it and probably wont get more then a few points if I am lucky.chaugnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-29294123175163434862010-07-16T11:40:00.003-04:002010-07-16T12:24:23.080-04:00Shakeout in progressI believe we are currently in progress of a bullish pattern by shaking out weak longs that had entered positions after the 1085 break as well as trapping bears that went short in the 109X range. The internals of the market are not supporting a drop of the size we had seen today. Anyone who follows me on disqus may have read my comments this morning on TTW as liquidity had been removed carefully to create the 10 point drop in 30 minutes. After the drop was done liquidity had been re-added. Another supporting element is the weak negative tick for such a selling event which further supports a drain in liquidity to push the market lower.<div><br /></div><div>As you know me I generally do not talk about "devilish market maker" scenarios but this here seems quite fishy. Get rid of weak longs, trap the bears, break into 110X and make the weak longs rebuy as well as force bears to cover which will ultimately lead the way towards 1130 SPX.</div><div><br /></div><div>Targets on ES today could be anywhere in the 1062-1066 range as a valid 4th wave to propel the market higher. From a time perspective this looks now much more solid for a proper 4th wave compared to yesterday.</div><div><br /></div><div>I am also considering re-adding my longs that I had closed last week as we are currently under my exit prices which is great.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>12:24PM</b>: this could be it.</div>chaugnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-89247967555120386342010-07-16T10:30:00.002-04:002010-07-16T10:34:12.286-04:00USDJPY - counter trend attemptsAs per twitter I just took a long in USDJPY with tight stops. I am allowing myself a total of 5 attempts here over the next 3 trade days to get a first part of a long position build there. I know we broke important support @ 87 here but this pair has provided great sharp reversals in the past, if one is nimble and can absorb a few attempts of being stopped out there is some nice gains to be had. Ultimately I am looking for a retest of at least 90 from the eventual bottom/reversal point.chaugnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-55318133477793825132010-07-15T15:51:00.001-04:002010-07-15T15:51:51.244-04:00Excuse me !!!Well, highest tick since 2001 ... not much more to say there ...chaugnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-64456080090192914552010-07-15T13:27:00.003-04:002010-07-15T13:28:45.873-04:00Tick confirmation in<i>"</i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); line-height: 18px; "><i>On the other hand, if the LOD is in we will see ourselves back at VWAP by 1:30PM or a bit earlier even."</i></span><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); line-height: 18px; "><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); line-height: 18px; "><i>"</i></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); line-height: 18px; "><b><i>11:18AM</i></b><i>: Look for tick confirmation here. Considering that we had a -1200+ tick today, we need to get at the minimum an equally strong tick on the upside (1100+) as another confirmation for LOD."</i></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); line-height: 18px; "><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); line-height: 18px; ">Well we hit price, time and confirmation targets again. Really wish I had tried another long this morning after my 2 failed attempts. A bit frustrating but we can say with great confidence now that we are opening up the price range towards 1100+ SPX. Maybe not right away but price action here is very indicative of higher prices and less selling pressures.</span></div>chaugnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-69889115813822124362010-07-15T13:03:00.004-04:002010-07-15T13:07:00.456-04:00Updated Channels<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvS29nBX85PiaO6vvfGh191RPWDDFEyvtT9RN2n3f06miRgY78sc61uSarIiqY1TM7DcqZTrn04BVvhntuysBYs7PRQJMXHSQyC83e6qQQsH8wfI-miYY2p-9g-V8AeDufP-VhFhGzJkw/s1600/updatedchannelsagain.GIF"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 206px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvS29nBX85PiaO6vvfGh191RPWDDFEyvtT9RN2n3f06miRgY78sc61uSarIiqY1TM7DcqZTrn04BVvhntuysBYs7PRQJMXHSQyC83e6qQQsH8wfI-miYY2p-9g-V8AeDufP-VhFhGzJkw/s400/updatedchannelsagain.GIF" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5494180250143915474" /></a><br />I have to admit, this channel chart we have been using for many weeks now is working perfectly. I have added a new channel on the right hand side as we are close to breaching the down trend line here. This of course would fit very nicely with the chart from earlier with the W5 targets and of course will bring prices nicely above all key averages. Its interesting to see how prices have reversed so strongly from the lowest uptrend channel step that was broken as we breached 1060 a few weeks back. You can see how prices reversed very strong and got themselves back into the previous up channel. Its key now to remain above this trendline on a 3-day close basis.chaugnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5888907630242568925.post-29475409404111642032010-07-15T10:50:00.004-04:002010-07-15T11:19:39.460-04:00Bad trade for the monthLets hope this was my bad trade for the month lol. Tried catching the falling knife this morning without much luck (as per twitter).<div><br /></div><div>You may ask why was I so reckless? Well, I really expected that we keep this GAP open for a bit longer and run into the 110X SPX range first especially after breaking 1095 on a cash basis consistently without strong reversals. I know it sounds like an excuse and hindsight a break of yesterdays low of course made it obvious that the GAP would likely be filled. Sometimes, being glued to the screen and trading on "impulse" can burn you. While it was just a few points (due to tight stops) its still frustrating having giving up money when there was clearly no long trade until the GAP was filled.</div><div><br /></div><div>Back to charts, we just hit the perfect 23% retracement with our low today which makes this a W4 and opens up the price range towards much higher prices.</div><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEif4dqAx4Kb9R-9tvgPa2LHNNO7SFLJwsVhbVoIetms4IP8qU-o2ufqYuqZUazGCmfQQ4MoStpG3a7bb7b_uBXjsd5sbdrqafyAM9amy0l162OpzMy9jDR83gVscGLqwu_teJino13t4yc/s1600/reallyes.GIF"></a><div><br /></div><div><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEif4dqAx4Kb9R-9tvgPa2LHNNO7SFLJwsVhbVoIetms4IP8qU-o2ufqYuqZUazGCmfQQ4MoStpG3a7bb7b_uBXjsd5sbdrqafyAM9amy0l162OpzMy9jDR83gVscGLqwu_teJino13t4yc/s1600/reallyes.GIF"><img style="text-align: left;display: block; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: auto; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 286px; " src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEif4dqAx4Kb9R-9tvgPa2LHNNO7SFLJwsVhbVoIetms4IP8qU-o2ufqYuqZUazGCmfQQ4MoStpG3a7bb7b_uBXjsd5sbdrqafyAM9amy0l162OpzMy9jDR83gVscGLqwu_teJino13t4yc/s400/reallyes.GIF" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5494147617628654770" /></a></div><br />Now on the long side it is very possible that we shake out some of the weak longs first here and make a marginal new low around 2 pts lower early afternoon. This should come with lower sell volume and should be followed with a strong reversal. On the other hand, if the LOD is in we will see ourselves back at VWAP by 1:30PM or a bit earlier even. Getting back to VWAP would be quite bullish and validate that our LOD is in, at least for the day.<div><br /></div><div><b>11:18AM</b>: Look for tick confirmation here. Considering that we had a -1200+ tick today, we need to get at the minimum an equally strong tick on the upside (1100+) as another confirmation for LOD. Market is being helped by EURUSD here so any weakness there could spell more trouble and further downside. Considering EURUSD is up substantially already its a bit difficult seeing how upside can develop without FX support.<br /><div><br /></div></div>chaugnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16378543210029732358noreply@blogger.com0