Tuesday, June 16, 2009

What was that?

No short covering, no dip buying, we actually had a sell off into the close with a new low. What is that I smell? I am getting a little excited here that we may have a new trend in the making. We shall see. For now lets do some review and figure out what comes next.
Posted by chaugner at 4:09 PM

12 comments:

  1. chaugnerJune 16, 2009 at 4:17 PM

    FYI around 50% hedged long into the close with a 10 point stop.

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  2. samamehtaJune 16, 2009 at 4:34 PM

    Look for gap down tomorrow and downward acceleration to finish the drop by 3 PM -- who knows at what level. To cause the maximum pain for the bulls it may even drop below 875 -- the holly grail number.

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  3. chaugnerJune 16, 2009 at 4:41 PM

    there is a very slim chance of this occurring. Of course I would love a move like this but a more probably scenario is a retest of the 916-922 range before heading lower.

    At the moment. Lowest RSI value on the 60min and MACD ever since this rally started. The chances of further advances on the downside are very narrow with such oversold conditions. We also completed a nice 5 wave EW move here off last week so we are looking for a correction.

    The question becomes if it will be an ABC type correction that will retest the W4 of 928? or will it stall before around my target range and act more like a sideways type move.

    My call is for a small GAP up tomorrow and a narrow spinner for the day to get those oversold conditions out of the way. If we were to try to go for anything below 900 at this point we should fail miserably and setup another chance for the bulls to take it away from us.

    I prefer a break of 900 with RSI/MACD leveled to build in enough buffer to make 900 resistance. Again, patience is important. I was getting very excited today and had to slap my fingers when I wanted to add more to my positions. While all positions are up at the moment, I forsee them trading in the reds pretty soon and wipe out a lot of my gains.

    As I intend to keep those longer term, I have no choice but to assume a paper loss until the market resolves in the direction of the positions.

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  4. samamehtaJune 16, 2009 at 5:35 PM

    Likewise, I am holding long term sds and srs positions. I am at a breakeven in those by now. trend is bound to change. For Options, it is a gorrila war. take it when you can. i did allright on calls today also.

    we may not like it ut trend will change around July-August. there will be rally and retest 960 or even 1000. Again this is all based on the gut feelings and theory of maximum pain.

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  5. baba booeyJune 17, 2009 at 9:21 AM

    sama - never trade on gut feelings. your gut always seems to be wrong.

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  6. samamehtaJune 17, 2009 at 10:31 AM

    Baba, you are absolutely right. I am covering my shorts today and may go long tomorrow.

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  7. chaugnerJune 17, 2009 at 10:32 AM

    keeping my core shorts and will hedge. By the way shorted POT yesterday morning. Up nicely heh.

    Waiting for 898 before going long with a 893 stop on it. Will hedge via SSO on equities and buy lots of ES (futures).

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  8. samamehtaJune 17, 2009 at 11:04 AM

    do you mean spx or es numbers for 898? thanks

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  9. chaugnerJune 17, 2009 at 11:11 AM

    SPX

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  10. baba booeyJune 17, 2009 at 12:57 PM

    here chaugsy chaugsy chaugsy....where you at?

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  11. chaugnerJune 17, 2009 at 1:06 PM

    still here. Sorry again for not having made more updates. Have too many non-market related things on my mind at the moment making it difficult to focus 100% on my own analysis and posting it up.

    I promise I will be back to normal shortly =)

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  12. baba booeyJune 17, 2009 at 1:25 PM

    the market should be your life chaugs! : )
    sama m - what is your gut telling you?

    ReplyDelete

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