Now today - I will watch the first hour very carefully. What I am looking for is a strong move higher on ES towards 1169-1171 and then a reversal below 1165 within 15 minutes. If that will occur I will be adding shorts, on a break of yesterdays low will be adding even more. We need to close today below yesterdays low of the day for this to develop into a sell off - sideways move after a strong first 45 minutes will likely result in forced covering from 2:30PM and more buying to bring us back towards the highs on Monday.
So today is quite important. I will be giving updates on position entries in the comments. Its very likely that I may go cash again towards the end regardless of profit/loss.
seeing a bit too much hesitation - need to bring in strong buying here in the next 15 minutes for my "most likely" scenario to remain valid.
ReplyDeleteadded first 25% here
ReplyDeletelikly to push higher still as sell volume is not there yet
ReplyDeleteFYI another thing I am looking for here today ... whenever it happens (most likely if we revisit yesterdays low) is the SPY 1 min chart with 2-3 minutes of increase volume with a peak of 2 million shares on the third minute. That would be another great confirmation sign but we have to be a bit more patient so it seems ....
ReplyDeletewell as I typed it its starting or happen lol
ReplyDeletetick not low enough yet though but getting there ... we just saw the typical 3 minute sell/volume pattern but not low enough on the tick yet. Need one more push like this after some consolidation.
ReplyDeleteas you can see, tick not low enough and boom there goes the rally. Its a bit more difficult now to try to figure out next move and how much higher it goes. Next target is the original 1169 on ES and then reverse lower from there but chances just went a tiny bit lower for a strong sell off today.
ReplyDeleteSo its looking a bit more bullish at the moment but only marginal.
Sorry to keep on talking but I figured its an important day today - so want to make sure we are seeing things properly.
added another 25% here
ReplyDeleteclock is ticking now ... 15 minutes to get below 1165 =)
ReplyDeletewell this was either the last push here or no sell off. Still have 50% to add on a break of the LOD today.
ReplyDeleteunfortunately its moving sideways as we had feared again, meaning the pressure is on the sellers and not the buyers. We should probably make a fake move lower by 2 maybe even 3 pts just to recover and make a new intraday high.
ReplyDeleteLets give it till 1:30PM and see what develops but its not looking good for selling into the close.
my timing seems on today for some reason hah - first this morning with the 3 1-min sell/volume, now the move lower. Lets take a look at it first and see if this is a fake move or not.
ReplyDeletevolume is extremely low for such a move here, tick on the downside looks promising but we are seeing the exact opposite of this morning. In the morning high volume low tick, now low tick but no volume yet.
ReplyDeletenever mind here we go ....
ReplyDeletethere goes the -1000+ tick .... this is not a fake move here.
ReplyDeletewill be adding more shorts today.
ReplyDeleteand I will shut up now =)
ReplyDelete