Since we started it yesterday lets do another one of those cheesy market crashing songs ... thats what they should be queuing up on the NYSE floor shortly.
I am waiting for XLF too. heavily in financials and today they are not partcipating. SDS is doing better than FAZ? Our luck. still losing but hope to go green tomorrow.
How do you predict is a gap (either up or down) fills? This morning, you said the open would be the high of today.
Why did you think today's gap down would not be retraced with the S&P closing above the open? It is cuss of the bad news? Claims came out at 631k, better than consensus of 645k.
many variables. Today we opened below a specific "pain point" that will lead to more selling (stops and people trapped in longs) on top of being down 1% at the open.
While I was not 100% correct, I did say that we may be off by a point or two and I think we had the high of the day around 3 points above the open.
Additionally we had a lot of news to absorb since yesterday - FED outlook and of course UK ratings cut. Futures were pushed down and selling started right off the open.
"if you do not understand, better get out and try to figure it out later" If I were long since yesterday, thats what I would have done at the open - it seems many followed.
There were several signs that made me close out. One XLF not playing nice here, then not able to get back to retest/break low (and doing a 3rd attempt at the previous peak there).
Also 870-880 is quite strong as I had mentioned in the past, running all the way back to 924 from last week shows the strength in terms of price.
We are quite oversold on many indicators, at least on the short term. It is very possible that we can get back into the 898 range by early next week, at the same time we can bring this right to 869/856 tomorrow.
So its a 50/50 type of thing of what the market will do here. I am willing to take that risk and let the market show me first where to go.
futures currently at S&P 893 ... staggering. Still upset that I had to close my short positions today - I mean yeah it seems it was the right move but it really goes against my trade strategies and what I am used too ...
Thanks Chris. I too got out 50% at 887 and 50% at 881. Hope to get in with better entry. I still lost because of funny FAZ and SRS acting. But stomach this loss, knwoing that better direction is ahead. I might wait for 875-866 to break and buy SDS at higher price than go through torture of fear of SPX 1000. MMs have damaged our psyche and it is a sign of top. One hopes Bulls are fearless.
would like to know your view of the better entry points. Got SSO with tight stops at 881. Let us see if it pays off.
A quick question? You said that you have one button to close all open positions. which platform do you use. Schawb will not let you do that and it takeds time to close different positions.
reduced 50% shorts here. wait it out until friday PM.
ReplyDeleteSam
just broke the low of day trendline in a descending triangle. We should see low 870's at least. Will close some of my shorts there.
ReplyDeletealso waiting for XLF to finally make the jump down. Will bring enough sellers with it to bring us those 10+ points down.
ReplyDeleteI am waiting for XLF too. heavily in financials and today they are not partcipating. SDS is doing better than FAZ? Our luck. still losing but hope to go green tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteChris,
ReplyDeleteHow do you predict is a gap (either up or down) fills? This morning, you said the open would be the high of today.
Why did you think today's gap down would not be retraced with the S&P closing above the open? It is cuss of the bad news? Claims came out at 631k, better than consensus of 645k.
"How do you predict **if a gap fills?"
ReplyDeletemany variables. Today we opened below a specific "pain point" that will lead to more selling (stops and people trapped in longs) on top of being down 1% at the open.
ReplyDeleteWhile I was not 100% correct, I did say that we may be off by a point or two and I think we had the high of the day around 3 points above the open.
Additionally we had a lot of news to absorb since yesterday - FED outlook and of course UK ratings cut. Futures were pushed down and selling started right off the open.
"if you do not understand, better get out and try to figure it out later" If I were long since yesterday, thats what I would have done at the open - it seems many followed.
also, there is a thing with 1+% gaps into either direction. Many times those will see almost no fill attempts.
ReplyDeleteIts more of "buy whatever everyone else is buying" or "sell whatever everyone else is selling"
also, preparing to press the "close all open positions on all accounts" button here soon.
ReplyDeleteexited shorts .... [crying]
ReplyDeleteAre you exiting to lock in profit or do you think we're going to bounce up tommorrow. How high are you expecting?
ReplyDeleteThere were several signs that made me close out. One XLF not playing nice here, then not able to get back to retest/break low (and doing a 3rd attempt at the previous peak there).
ReplyDeleteAlso 870-880 is quite strong as I had mentioned in the past, running all the way back to 924 from last week shows the strength in terms of price.
We are quite oversold on many indicators, at least on the short term. It is very possible that we can get back into the 898 range by early next week, at the same time we can bring this right to 869/856 tomorrow.
So its a 50/50 type of thing of what the market will do here. I am willing to take that risk and let the market show me first where to go.
and regarding the "[crying]" comment ... its what the market is making me do here. I have never been more "scared" in positions then now.
ReplyDeletefutures currently at S&P 893 ... staggering. Still upset that I had to close my short positions today - I mean yeah it seems it was the right move but it really goes against my trade strategies and what I am used too ...
ReplyDeleteyoue website is not functioning well. hope this makes it to you.
ReplyDeletesam
thanks. I think it should be working now. Something related to twitter.
ReplyDeleteThanks Chris. I too got out 50% at 887 and 50% at 881. Hope to get in with better entry. I still lost because of funny FAZ and SRS acting. But stomach this loss, knwoing that better direction is ahead. I might wait for 875-866 to break and buy SDS at higher price than go through torture of fear of SPX 1000. MMs have damaged our psyche and it is a sign of top. One hopes Bulls are fearless.
ReplyDeletewould like to know your view of the better entry points. Got SSO with tight stops at 881. Let us see if it pays off.
A quick question? You said that you have one button to close all open positions. which platform do you use. Schawb will not let you do that and it takeds time to close different positions.
thanks again for great work. Chris.