jUST watching the tape and smiling. it is about time.
Chris, do you take profit at 875? or ride it down to 850. Pr take partial profit lke you did with 50% SDS.
It looks bearish. it will go down because we are still scared of bulls. I have to remind myself that even if it goes to 930-950 I will double down. Upside has to be limited.
not quite sure yet. Do not think we will get this low today. Option expiration normally does not exceed 15 points in range.
Either way, I will make up my mind once we get there based on what the market is showing me. Will either hedge via futures or do the same micromanagement.
Now that I am in a position that goes into my direction I try not to exceed 2 management trades per week. Anything more then that you normally end up worse then you started.
Still got some money left over that I have not yet added to the full positions. Time is on our side so just got to have patience.
The 60-minute 3-month S&P 500 is back testing the break down through the lower rising channel. This back test is likely to be short lived and the market will return its move down. However, Friday is options expiration day, so we could get more volatility than normal. The RSI dropped below 50 indicating a new down trend. The MACD turned up with the rally. It showed negative divergence, a good sell sign. The MACD histogram has continued to show negative divergence as well, another sign of a move down. The Slow Stochastic turned back down through 80 giving another sell sign. The 60-minute chart is indicating the market this rally is a good opportunity to add to any short positions. For investors that are more conservative monitor the back test. If it breaks back down then add more down side protection using protective puts and the short ETFs. The strategy going forward remains as before. Be prepared to add further down side protection buying protective puts and the short ETFs (SH, SDS, QID, etc.) on any confirmation of a new down trend. My expectation is we will see either further sideways consolidation or a move down in the near future. However, need to accept what the market gives us and not try to create something before it is there.
many may be getting ahead of themselves here - trend is unfortunately still up. In the big picture of things - my current feel is that we have 2 of 3 confirmations that the downtrend will now resume.
I would honestly be a bit surprised if this has been the rebound here for the bulls. If it is, well I am more confident of the 480 range again instead of the 716 I had mentioned last week.
break of 912 last week scared me ... and it still scares me.
I agree. By monday or Tuesday we should get an IT trend confirmation. I follow this stock market timing blog and they list institutional activities. the accumulation is decreasing but the distribution has not yet overcome. they expect very soon. That should be solid signal.
market really should bounce here ... if not well, we may have more downside today but I would anticipate another test on the upper trendline which means at least 6-8 points from here.
Just a quick, laser-focused intraday update to state that the 882.49 level ($88.41 in the SPY) MUST be held as support for the bulls for any hope of higher prices in the short term. A failure here, particularly a close beneath this level should we get a push to new lows intraday, would be devastating and would set-up an almost certain test of the 50 day EMA just beneath 860.
yeah ... I have to admit its been an amazing week for me. Quite happy at my performance here this week and made up a lot of ground from the past 2.5 months.
no idea what will happen here in the next hour. Anything possible ... considering we breached the 880 range it is actually possible to hit mu 869 target ... VERY unlikely but can happen (wishful thinking for the bears).
On the other hand get ready for major short covering at 3:25PM ... could easily add 10-15 points back.
Yeah I know, "it could go up or down" - not much analysis just some random thoughts of possibilities.
will figure it out over the weekend. We have 2 scenarios primary scenarios - 2 potential up days (1 up one slight up with distribution) to 902 before taking out 869. I favor this one as it will create the outer edge of a potential new trend channel down (with the assumption that current trendline off the peaks is the center line - pics will speak a thousand words so wait for updates over weekend)
Next scenario is a continuation of selling towards 836-855 (wide range I know). Here it becomes more difficult to predict the channel and leaves too much room for too many patterns and scenarios. While my bank account would favor this one - its not a good long term scenario to manage existing positions - will be hit and miss to exit/re-enter.
Thanks. I just nibbled on spx june call with tight stop. I do not mind stops being taken out if it goes down.
here is similar analysis from another blog. http://uidezine.blogspot.com/
Everytime the market touched the bottom of the channel it has turned quickly and bounce like a rocket. Now I think the "Buy the dip" strategy will fail. Monday opening will be key for this market. A gap down on monday below that line would put the market definitely out of the channel and would trigger some serious selloff IMO. They better hold the double bottom. If not, Bulls will be in serious trouble.
where you at chaugsy?
ReplyDeletesamamehta you wake up yet?
ReplyDeletehibernation ....
ReplyDeletejUST watching the tape and smiling. it is about time.
ReplyDeleteChris, do you take profit at 875? or ride it down to 850. Pr take partial profit lke you did with 50% SDS.
It looks bearish. it will go down because we are still scared of bulls. I have to remind myself that even if it goes to 930-950 I will double down. Upside has to be limited.
not quite sure yet. Do not think we will get this low today. Option expiration normally does not exceed 15 points in range.
ReplyDeleteEither way, I will make up my mind once we get there based on what the market is showing me. Will either hedge via futures or do the same micromanagement.
Now that I am in a position that goes into my direction I try not to exceed 2 management trades per week. Anything more then that you normally end up worse then you started.
Still got some money left over that I have not yet added to the full positions. Time is on our side so just got to have patience.
Thanks chris. Just FYI a blurb from bulls site:
ReplyDeleteThe 60-minute 3-month S&P 500 is back testing the break down through the lower rising channel. This back test is likely to be short lived and the market will return its move down. However, Friday is options expiration day, so we could get more volatility than normal.
The RSI dropped below 50 indicating a new down trend. The MACD turned up with the rally. It showed negative divergence, a good sell sign. The MACD histogram has continued to show negative divergence as well, another sign of a move down. The Slow Stochastic turned back down through 80 giving another sell sign.
The 60-minute chart is indicating the market this rally is a good opportunity to add to any short positions. For investors that are more conservative monitor the back test. If it breaks back down then add more down side protection using protective puts and the short ETFs.
The strategy going forward remains as before. Be prepared to add further down side protection buying protective puts and the short ETFs (SH, SDS, QID, etc.) on any confirmation of a new down trend. My expectation is we will see either further sideways consolidation or a move down in the near future. However, need to accept what the market gives us and not try to create something before it is there.
bullish lowering wedge here again. Watch out if you short.
ReplyDeletewould you take a profit or wait it out.
ReplyDeletewaiting it out of course. Went long for small amount via futures at 881 with stop at break even. Just in case =)
ReplyDeleteAll blogs and everyone in the world is turning bearish now - "be fearful when others are greedy, be greedy when others are fearful".
While I am fully onboard with the bearish views I rather protect myself instead of following a view that may not happen.
many may be getting ahead of themselves here - trend is unfortunately still up. In the big picture of things - my current feel is that we have 2 of 3 confirmations that the downtrend will now resume.
ReplyDeleteStaying cautious ....
I would honestly be a bit surprised if this has been the rebound here for the bulls. If it is, well I am more confident of the 480 range again instead of the 716 I had mentioned last week.
ReplyDeletebreak of 912 last week scared me ... and it still scares me.
I agree. By monday or Tuesday we should get an IT trend confirmation. I follow this stock market timing blog and they list institutional activities. the accumulation is decreasing but the distribution has not yet overcome. they expect very soon. That should be solid signal.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.stocktiming.com/index.htm
market really should bounce here ... if not well, we may have more downside today but I would anticipate another test on the upper trendline which means at least 6-8 points from here.
ReplyDeleteThat would be 875 -876 we could get a 15 to 20 points bounce you think, if we do not get one now?
ReplyDeleteMany are expecting a bounce there ... my range is a bit lower. 869 to be exact =)
ReplyDeleteWe shall see.
I will post some updates over the weekend as to what I am expecting in terms of moves.
ReplyDeletewaiting for new LOD. we should then go to 875
ReplyDeleteFROM A BLOG:
ReplyDeletehttp://blog.afraidtotrade.com/
Just a quick, laser-focused intraday update to state that the 882.49 level ($88.41 in the SPY) MUST be held as support for the bulls for any hope of higher prices in the short term. A failure here, particularly a close beneath this level should we get a push to new lows intraday, would be devastating and would set-up an almost certain test of the 50 day EMA just beneath 860.
yeah ... I have to admit its been an amazing week for me. Quite happy at my performance here this week and made up a lot of ground from the past 2.5 months.
ReplyDeletegloating a bit as well at the 898 call yesterday ;p perfect timing for all of us to add shorts at good prices so it seems.
ReplyDeletecHRIS? YOUR CRYSTAL BALL PLEASE.
ReplyDeleteno idea what will happen here in the next hour. Anything possible ... considering we breached the 880 range it is actually possible to hit mu 869 target ... VERY unlikely but can happen (wishful thinking for the bears).
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand get ready for major short covering at 3:25PM ... could easily add 10-15 points back.
Yeah I know, "it could go up or down" - not much analysis just some random thoughts of possibilities.
i BOUGHT spy 88 CALL AT 0.5 FOR THE NEXT 30 MINUTES. STOP LOSS FEW PENNYS
ReplyDeleteI trade on the TSE and it seems to have frozen or closed?? Do you guys know what's going on?
ReplyDeletenot sure Ryan sorry :(
ReplyDeletewell look at that short covering there at 3:25 PM ... just on time =)
ReplyDeletea bit mad at myself for not hedging long via futures here.
ReplyDeleteabout 10-15 points you think/
ReplyDeleteMy spy are doing OK. thanks chris.
from ice cold to on fire... : )
ReplyDeleteI wish my "lucky guesses" would work like this all the time =)
ReplyDeletelong via futures here and keeping it over weekend.
ReplyDeleteyou made the right choice it seems.
ReplyDeletehere is call for monday
The system will switch to long for Monday.
Will go to 1.5x.
What is you upside target? 50% of 930-880? that would be 25 points i.e. 905?
ReplyDeletewill figure it out over the weekend. We have 2 scenarios primary scenarios - 2 potential up days (1 up one slight up with distribution) to 902 before taking out 869. I favor this one as it will create the outer edge of a potential new trend channel down (with the assumption that current trendline off the peaks is the center line - pics will speak a thousand words so wait for updates over weekend)
ReplyDeleteNext scenario is a continuation of selling towards 836-855 (wide range I know). Here it becomes more difficult to predict the channel and leaves too much room for too many patterns and scenarios. While my bank account would favor this one - its not a good long term scenario to manage existing positions - will be hit and miss to exit/re-enter.
Thanks. I just nibbled on spx june call with tight stop. I do not mind stops being taken out if it goes down.
ReplyDeletehere is similar analysis from another blog.
http://uidezine.blogspot.com/
Everytime the market touched the bottom of the channel it has turned quickly and bounce like a rocket. Now I think the "Buy the dip" strategy will fail. Monday opening will be key for this market. A gap down on monday below that line would put the market definitely out of the channel and would trigger some serious selloff IMO.
They better hold the double bottom. If not, Bulls will be in serious trouble.