are we going to have another repeat of me covering the majority of my positions just before it drops? Same happened to me on the last BIG rally when I thought we would finally drop and I prematurely entered too many shorts too early just to cover at the top.
lets see what happens. This time I will follow my gut and ONLY go in heavy after a break of 1014SPX. I got screwed twice now by being impatient and shorting too soon just to have to cover as the picture becomes unclear once we have one of those magic rallies again.
Chris, why not fade into the short? That has worked well for me. Albeit, market screwed me each time at each "correction", but I find that fading into the short position makes it easier to manager because the position is smaller in size, so the psychological stress for me isn't as large. Like, I am able to and willing to hold the smaller position longer, take a bigger risk and take more of a loss, so that it gives me more time to see the action play out. Whereas when I go in "heavy", I just cannot take that much risk and have to close it out.
well, to be quite honest, I have faded my core shorts (and manage those). However, the past two times I have gone in too heavy too fast with shorter term options which increase the pain of course. Usually I do not do something like that but I was pretty confident the last two times that this time it would be different lol
and of course it was not. My last "heavy" chunk I wanted to add on a break of 1014 - both times I justified to myself that its ok to add even without having broken this range. You saw how that turned out - cost me a good chunk of my available cash lol
haha...well you know what, I learned this very same lesson the same way you're learning it - the hard way, the expensive way. But you may be more stubborn than I am haha....That head and shoulder failure back in July taught me a HARD lesson!
yeah I was 100% short back in july and covered at 913 - lucky for me. Probably the smartest move I had made during this entire rally. I was 100% invested short without any longs and actually closed out all my shorts up around 7% on the entire account.
Then I went crazy shorting starting at 965 and since that have lost the largest chunk of my account ever. If I had stuck 100% short since 965 - well I would have had more money today - even 100+ SPX points later. Goes to show you how bad you can screw up with only 100SPX points moved.
lets be honest - since 965, well lost around 50%. Never had anything like this happen to me before ...
What I could have done with that money lol. While its EXTREMELY painful, for some reason I am pretty collected still (which I think is a bad thing). Pretty much all my rules went out the window and I kept on shorting, covering higher, seeing the market drop, shorting again, covering higher, rinse and repeat.
I agree 965 was a killer. still holding my sds hoping that market will go down below that level. Lost few in option at that level but futures are working better in small amount. Chris, you are not alone there are many like us but that is no consolation.
Sol who lately has been calling great calls on ST basis is back to positive. So it is doable. I see him limit profit and loss by few points only. No big killer move, which may come and hopefully we on board and recognize it and not take profit too early.
are we going to have another repeat of me covering the majority of my positions just before it drops? Same happened to me on the last BIG rally when I thought we would finally drop and I prematurely entered too many shorts too early just to cover at the top.
ReplyDeleteMarket may trick me again .. hah
Over there at AMBG Trading he is going all in short today...looking promising right now.
ReplyDeletelets see what happens. This time I will follow my gut and ONLY go in heavy after a break of 1014SPX. I got screwed twice now by being impatient and shorting too soon just to have to cover as the picture becomes unclear once we have one of those magic rallies again.
ReplyDeleteChris, why not fade into the short? That has worked well for me. Albeit, market screwed me each time at each "correction", but I find that fading into the short position makes it easier to manager because the position is smaller in size, so the psychological stress for me isn't as large. Like, I am able to and willing to hold the smaller position longer, take a bigger risk and take more of a loss, so that it gives me more time to see the action play out. Whereas when I go in "heavy", I just cannot take that much risk and have to close it out.
ReplyDeletewell, to be quite honest, I have faded my core shorts (and manage those). However, the past two times I have gone in too heavy too fast with shorter term options which increase the pain of course. Usually I do not do something like that but I was pretty confident the last two times that this time it would be different lol
ReplyDeleteand of course it was not. My last "heavy" chunk I wanted to add on a break of 1014 - both times I justified to myself that its ok to add even without having broken this range. You saw how that turned out - cost me a good chunk of my available cash lol
ReplyDeletehaha...well you know what, I learned this very same lesson the same way you're learning it - the hard way, the expensive way. But you may be more stubborn than I am haha....That head and shoulder failure back in July taught me a HARD lesson!
ReplyDeleteyeah I was 100% short back in july and covered at 913 - lucky for me. Probably the smartest move I had made during this entire rally. I was 100% invested short without any longs and actually closed out all my shorts up around 7% on the entire account.
ReplyDeleteThen I went crazy shorting starting at 965 and since that have lost the largest chunk of my account ever. If I had stuck 100% short since 965 - well I would have had more money today - even 100+ SPX points later. Goes to show you how bad you can screw up with only 100SPX points moved.
lets be honest - since 965, well lost around 50%. Never had anything like this happen to me before ...
ReplyDeleteWhat I could have done with that money lol. While its EXTREMELY painful, for some reason I am pretty collected still (which I think is a bad thing). Pretty much all my rules went out the window and I kept on shorting, covering higher, seeing the market drop, shorting again, covering higher, rinse and repeat.
I think 3 months ago I said the same thing...everyone waiting for Alcoa...
ReplyDeleteI agree 965 was a killer. still holding my sds hoping that market will go down below that level. Lost few in option at that level but futures are working better in small amount. Chris, you are not alone there are many like us but that is no consolation.
ReplyDeleteSol who lately has been calling great calls on ST basis is back to positive. So it is doable. I see him limit profit and loss by few points only. No big killer move, which may come and hopefully we on board and recognize it and not take profit too early.
Keep it up Chris. you will make it.