Wednesday, October 21, 2009

What the heck happened?

I am traveling back to the US this week so I had no time to watch the market after it made yet again another new high - so can someone explain to me what exactly happened here? Just got home just to see a 20 point drop on very strong volume strong tick. This must have been news driven ...
Posted by chaugner at 7:36 PM

10 comments:

  1. chaugnerOctober 21, 2009 at 7:40 PM

    lol ok had to figure out what happened. WFC downgrade ... its so ironic that the last time we had a MAJOR sell off (when we had hit 1040 and dropped like a rock) it was based on a rumor that could have potentially involved WFC failure.

    Not sure what to make of this market anymore ....

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  2. AnonymousOctober 22, 2009 at 9:33 AM

    I'm just getting my popcorn ready :)

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  3. chaugnerOctober 22, 2009 at 9:38 AM

    I have to admit. I am finally a broken bear and even a strong sell off like yesterday (without any overnight recovery) does not give me ANY hopes being a bear in this market.

    Earnings are not that bad - they are not horrendous. Yes we have some misses and we know we have a LOT of problems - however, this just means that we have slow growth but at this point I am not seeing the sell off I had assumed were to happen this year for new lows in the market. Even longer term - I fail to see how the market can enter a longer term bearish cycle here.

    We have broken too many key resistances and remained about support too many times. There has only been one key support that has been visited after a 1 month time frame which was the 880 range. Any other support was dealt with each month.

    I missed my flight this week (yeah I know) so I will not return until sunday ... so expect me to be fully back trading by some time mid to end of next week. This gives me a nice chance to take a breather and evaluate the market with a fresh set of eyes.

    Trust me - you all will be getting a fairly long review of my fundamental views, technical views and how I expect to profit from the months to come.

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  4. chaugnerOctober 22, 2009 at 9:54 AM

    also cannot believe the market tricked me out of my position for a mere 3 SPX points and is finally reaching the target I have had on my ES position of 1069.

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  5. AnonymousOctober 22, 2009 at 12:37 PM

    chaugsy just retire already. you are a horrible trader. classic contra-indicator. typical retail investor.

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  6. chaugnerOctober 22, 2009 at 12:38 PM

    huh? not really sure how to respond to that one ... good luck to you is all that comes to my mind.

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  7. samamehtaOctober 23, 2009 at 12:40 PM

    Long at 1078.5. we may see 1120 in this move. Oct. 23, 2009

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  8. chaugnerOctober 23, 2009 at 1:38 PM

    really difficult to read market here I have to admit. 3 tests at the top range, 3-4 tests on the lower ranges (between 1070 and 1074 ES).

    Its very rare to get a 3rd or even 4th test without a breach of that range. If we go back up to 1095 we will see 1120, otherwise 1040 (or 1060) before regrouping to figure out what comes next.

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  9. chaugnerOctober 23, 2009 at 1:46 PM

    really like the post on slope ... http://slopeofhope.com/2009/10/anatomy-of-a-trading-blowout-by-biffermas.html

    kind of applies to me :(

    also funny seeing evil change his style as well. It seems many traders have changed a lot of their styles and plans again. Me of course going back to shorter term trading as well, no more IT positions, no more wide margins of "error".

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  10. chaugnerOctober 23, 2009 at 1:51 PM

    FYI closed the last few puts I had left here =)

    100% cash now
    only other trade I had made was the 1095 ES short about a week ago.

    Feels good being out of the market 100%

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