Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Holiday Spirit

Well the holiday's are preventing me from doing much market related stuff ... but boy oh boy look at EURUSD. Nice breakout there indicating a new high just around the corner for SPX.
Posted by chaugner at 8:21 AM

8 comments:

  1. samamehtaNovember 25, 2009 at 9:50 AM

    think chop-chop day

    ReplyDelete
  2. chaugnerNovember 25, 2009 at 10:39 AM

    yeap but take a look at EURUSD ... made a new high and is able to keep the previous high as support at least short term. If we can burn off the overbought conditions through sideways I do not see how we can start a meaningful retrace anytime soon without the dollar.

    Everything keeps on saying "oh the dollar oh no look how low it is" - take a look how much further it can go !!!! this by far is not a bottom - just because a stock is at its 52-week low does not mean it will not go any lower (think UNG - sorry Ryan)

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  3. samamehtaNovember 25, 2009 at 11:36 AM

    oNE GOOD ew EXPERT i READ SAYS: spx cash 1112.38, 1099, AND THEN MOVE UP TO 1180-1190 IN WAVAE 3.

    then drop to 580 by spring and then move up to 2200 by 2011

    am long from 1104.5 this am exit 1110

    fwiw

    ReplyDelete
  4. chaugnerNovember 25, 2009 at 12:01 PM

    from 580 to 2200 within 12 months is impossible. We are talking about 4x the value in a 12 month time frame. Even if its towards end of 2011. You can go back in history and compare largest advances and declines over time and you can see that a move such as the one described would be at least 2-3 deviations from the most extreme statical possible norm.

    Markets do not move this drastic regardless of bull or bear.

    ReplyDelete
  5. samamehtaNovember 25, 2009 at 12:15 PM

    Let us see, if his numbers for dec 11-15 to spx 1160-1190 pans out.

    stoppedout of long at 1108.5 for 4 points. not bad for holiday trade.

    ReplyDelete
  6. UnknownNovember 25, 2009 at 1:43 PM

    I still have nightmares about natural gas but this time I'm in a non leveraged vehicle gas.to and much smaller amounts so I can actually sleep at night :) I'm still holding a handful of longs at the moment (TD, GE, C). I'm thinking holding on for a bit longer.

    ReplyDelete
  7. chaugnerNovember 25, 2009 at 2:01 PM

    I am considering legging into some jan in the money puts here. Considering it.

    Also been looking at gld as well after sol had posted his "top call" been looking at this chart a bit more carefully. May give this one a try with stop at high of day.

    Will post if I do anything. I may wait till tomorrow/friday before I take any longer term position.

    ReplyDelete
  8. samamehtaNovember 25, 2009 at 2:34 PM

    Yes, after obligatory friday am spike short may be good position

    ReplyDelete

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