No idea whats going on there. As mentioned in the comments there are some weird fills going on with SPY - bid/ask spread is perfectly normal but some of those orders coming through ... do not think I have ever seen anything like that. Moved my stops to break even - who knows if someone is going to trip a wire somewhere causing some weird spikes.
looks like I am talking to myself here lol - anyone out there? hah
ReplyDeletecovered half of the ES position here @ 1055.75 from 1061.25
ReplyDeletecovered EURUSD @ 1.48485 from 1.48958
ReplyDeleteletting the rest of ES run towards 1054.25
ReplyDeleteI'm around Chris, just kind of a wierd day. I got scared out of a lot of my longs yesterday just to see it tank EOD and then gap back up today. Crazy.
ReplyDeleteyeah this market is definitely not easy. Thats one of the reasons why I am going back to my old system. Does not matter if I am bull or bear. I have always been good at spotting short term entries and exists. Forget about getting that BIG move of 100+ points - this "chance" of opportunity has cost me so much. Right now I am quite happy trading again and actually making money. Finding good entries, locking in some points. Its actually quite exciting again.
ReplyDeleteWhat do you see here Chris, do you think we're still have more room to go and then a drop? Or are we on our way back to 1100?
ReplyDeleteno idea to be honest. I had mentioned that the 1062 ES will most likely not hold today and we are on to higher prices. I think we have room for another 10 points - maybe even 15 before we start to retrace.
ReplyDeleteThe big question at the moment is the dollar - the dollar is not playing nice here and the SPX ship cannot leave without the dollar. If we continue to see this divergence with the dollar we may be setting up for some problems.
Either way - its a though call here as we have important news tomorrow. Yes I know news does not affect the markets - regardless of whether or not we make the jump to 1070 tomorrow or drop with a big gap down - both can be explained technically.
The other thing I had mentioned a while ago is the unfinished business for DOW at 10300. Really hard call here to figure out direction. Kind of happy I am cash at the moment since this is a bit too crazy for me.
keep in mind ... if we hear the 10% tomorrow - not sure the market is going to react positive about it. On the other hand - the economy is improving and our economic indicators are all improving across the board (less bad is the new good remember).
ReplyDeleteWe have had a 60% run up, who is to say we cannot go another 20%? The crash of 2008 was a black swan type of event, something out of the ordinary - this run up here has been just as incredible. While we were dropping DAY AFTER DAY last year everyone thought it could not go any lower - well it did.
I am not bullish, not at all. But from a pure market perspective - we have more room to go higher. If we rally another 20% - there is a perfect justification for it from a technical side - who is to say we won;t go higher?
Please do not take this comment from me as a capitulated bear - that is 100% not the case. I am just looking at this with a clear head. Yes the probabilities are higher that we head lower first - but those are the same probabilities that said in october 2008 we cannot drop any further.
I'm just curious, after the vicious rally we've seen from the March lows, if the bear does come back, do you think we'll see those levels again? I personally don't think we will since the economy is "improving". And yes that means less bad is now the good news. My thoughts are, I know we're not back to good news but if the market does pull back, who wouldn't be buying the sub 1000 S&P level.
ReplyDeleteRyan, you also have to understand - what we have seen here is NOT normal. Right now, everyone has the mentality of dip buying and a total fear of missing gains and greed. Its very tricky at the moment - while 880 seems a LONG way away from here - it really is not. Saying who would not be buying below 1000? When looking at the last 6 months yes BUY BELOW 1000 ... however, look longer term - just because we drop 100 SPX points does not mean its a buying opportunity.
ReplyDeleteWe have seen an incredible rally - really incredible - we now take this to be the norm. I mean think about it ... another 6 months like this and we are back to our highs. Highs that took 40+ years in the making.
And look at the bear mentality back in January through april - everyone was on the short bus. It was normal back then for the market to pop in the morning and close in the reds - there was only one trade to be had ... the short trade - being long was crazy. We did a 180 degree turn around. Both 2008 and 2009 thus far have been 2 years outside of the normal market behavior. So do not misunderstand the last 2 years as "normal" - its not normal.