Our trend lines are holding up quite nicely. I would have expected yesterday to run a bit higher after the break to the upside and as a result had closed out my shorts yesterday.Interesting to see how it bounced right off the RSI 50 line. If the market can breach RSI 50 today we should get ready for more upside. On the other hand I think a retest of yesterdays top may be in order before continuing lower.
I am currently long off the bottom (pre-market) and looking for at least 888 on SPX. Here I will decide if I want to add shorts over the weekend. At this point SPX has made a higher low but not yet a higher high from yesterday. Lets see if this is a reversal to the upside to give us a better chance to scale into shorts or if it was a dead cat bounce that will be sold. Chances are pretty high that we continue to sell to close the week at its lows which makes trading the short side a bit more difficult on the short term but gives us amazing signs for the mid term trades for the rest of the month.
when I say closed out shorts I am only talking about ETFs and options. Still holding 80+ short positions.
ReplyDeleteand it seems we are getting back to markets with wider ranges. Finally. This week has really shown us a lot more volatility then we have seen in the past few months during tradable cash hours (9:45-3:00). As you know me I do not like to initiate any day trades before or after that time window.
ReplyDeleteThe past 2 months it has made it very difficult as all the action happened overnight with minimal ranges during the day.
stopped out of long now. Waiting for it to get to 872SPX before trying again.
ReplyDeletelong again @ 872
ReplyDeletenice call
ReplyDeleteI want to play the safe side as I see something bullish develop here. It is very possible that we started another minor EW count 2 days ago and just completed W2. As we are at a key point W2 can exceed the 61.8% retracement and hit the 70% levels.
ReplyDeleteI will post a pic shortly. This will support quite a few scenarios and could be a gift for the bears to enter shorts heavily at much better prices.
if this is the LOD I am short term bullish till Tuesday next week. If we retest the low of the week I am bearish, HOWEVER bearish without being able to trade this the way I wanted to - meaning very under invested.
ReplyDeletethe bullish side would be heavily supported with a close today at the SPX884-885 levels or above. If we can manage that I think we have more upside.
ReplyDeleteLets wait out the day first until 1:30PM to see what develops here. I want to see how we trade around the VWAP to make a call for the next 3 days.
cahsed out of shorts 100% in cash. small bullish position
ReplyDeletecome on quants. Almost at VWAP. If I were a computer I would buy this one up especially with the higher low we just created =)
ReplyDeleteI guess I am a computer. Right when we touched VWAP a quant stepped in with the largest up volume bar since 11:00. Now the obligatory ABC correction to 875 and continue higher.
ReplyDelete1:30PM is still key for me here which should be right in time to complete the correction. If we breach 875 I think we have a chance for a new low. If we stay above 875 more quants will buy and bring in new buyers to get this to close at the 884-885+ levels.
sorry but whats a quant and VWAP?
ReplyDeletequant = computerized trading (black boxes that do automated trades based on patterns). Quants constitute MOST of the volume we see nowadays
ReplyDeleteVWAP = volume weighted average price.
I HIGHLY recommend adding VWAP as one of your indicators as it gives you a view to what computers are doing and what direction they are taking the market in.
Computerized models have years and years of knowledge and development behind them - so whatever they are doing - I want to do too lol
sorry for cluttering up my own blog with so many comments today. =)
ReplyDeleteok decision time now. Just as we had anticipated. We should see a directional decision now for the next 3 days. Break of 875 on the downside will lead to new lows and most likly a sell off continuation till EOD monday or tuesday morning.
Break of 881 on the upside will lead to higher prices till Tuesday. I will be able to figure out time targets after the close today. Upside move should be larger in terms of time then downside move - IF it occurs.
So lets see ....
What up Chaugner, long time no comment. Been sitting on the sidelines for about a week now. Missed the boat to short. Looking to get long again today around ES 864-865 region.
ReplyDeletezerohedge just posted an interesting article on this topic.
ReplyDeletehttp://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/07/rogue-algorithms-and-other-mutually.html
heya schismatic, sitting out was great idea with all this chop back and forth.
ReplyDeleteWe will have to see if we get to those levels today. I am a bit doubtful that we sell off from here - but I am also fully hedged at the moment and a bit long so I may be a bit opinionated on the bullish side until I am proven wrong (break of 875 on the downside).
new post with a visual from all this comment cluttering. Sorry but its quite an important turning point so I wanted to share my thoughts.
ReplyDelete