Looking for the small blue rectangle to be touched either today or tomorrow. Will use that as a guide for now to exit hedge and add more shorts with higher leverage.
Monday, July 6, 2009
Updated Targets
Looking for the small blue rectangle to be touched either today or tomorrow. Will use that as a guide for now to exit hedge and add more shorts with higher leverage.
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got more SSO here @ 24.27 ... looking to close out hedge with break even.
ReplyDeletedoubled SSO again at same price.
ReplyDeletenot enough volume to drop this below current level. At least not now, will distribute first and go up a bit more before taking out the LOD.
ReplyDeleteclosed out all of SSO with a small loss. Keep in mind it was not meant as a trade - purely as protection for my shorts over a long weekend. Whenever I enter a hedge I try not to turn it into a position and close out as soon as possible. Yes I expect more upside today and possibly tomorrow but not trading the long side unless its a scalp or daytrade.
ReplyDeleteFor now, staying 100% short and still very underinvested. Will be adding SPY put calendar spreads soon, also adding more to cash positions for SKF and SRS.
Today we may see 873-866 range then a bounce tomoroow to the levles you have indicated. though, we may not see spx above 900. Likely spx target could be 820 before a major rally.
ReplyDelete899 is my new target for adding shorts as mentioned above. I think you may be right that we will not get back above the 900 range. Market has built up a nice 10+ pt buffer now to turn 900 into proper resistance.
ReplyDeleteWe should see quite a bounce off the 852-854 levels though, probably will bring us back into the 880-890 range if we do break the 880 with strength here.
That is exactly the scenario I have in mind. today at the close early tomorrow will be a good long entry for a couple of days of rally. real low will be around thursday close for a profitable long entry.
ReplyDeletechaugsy let's go put some sizeable positions on. You're still trading scared!
ReplyDeletehah ... if I have learned one thing from this rally its patience and being cautious. Yes in one way it may appear scared, but I look at it as overly cautious especially at such an important point here.
ReplyDelete"Real" money will be added soon. But I am not going to try to chase it here. I do believe that we have seen the top at our 960 levels (its ironic that it happened 4 days after AAPL made its high - as you remember I was very strong on this indicator).
Now that I have a nice enough buffer built up I can go in a bit stronger without having to worry about carrying a drawdown. Out of my 100 positions, only 10 of them are in the reds (3 stopped out with minimal loss) - so feeling a bit better.
FYI - I do not like shorting into oversold conditions on the 60min. Thats kind of scaring me a bit here to add higher leverage.
ReplyDeleteI will give it my first try at the 89.73 SPY level today. Staying cautious still as we can run this all the way to 912 SPX this week.
912 may be a long shot but not before 875 is broken. added some puts at 895 for day trade only.
ReplyDelete912 only if we get it from here, if we break 880 we shall not see 912 again - or all bets are off =)
ReplyDeleteI do think we have room to run this to 912 here. Of course perfect short but the market has shown that she will not let us bears get a piece of the pie.
I'm still holding onto the UNG pain. It's broken the 52 week low. What are you thoughts Chris?
ReplyDeleteRyan, that was my fear here with UNG as it is being dragged down with oil and dollar. UNG in itself is a good play - however its getting too much outside pressure.
ReplyDeleteNot really sure what I would do here. its quite oversold so it maybe a lucky bounce in the cards. However if the dollar gets more strength as I am assuming it will, it will put pressure on nat gas and oil. The only "luck" again is an oversold play - but those I would only do in small positions with tight stops.
Is UNG a large position for you? Ask yourself, if you had no position today, and you had the choice to take a UNG position. Would you do it? Maybe a nice play with a stop just below the low of the day. But again, careful.
Sorry :(
Here is what I would do if I had to take a position.
ReplyDeleteAvg 12.53
Stop 12.30
Limit 13.62
That's a nice range to play and possible if we continue to rally.
Thanks for your advice Chris. At this point even with a bounce, I won't be able to break even b/c I bought into the leveraged version and I'm suffering the decay right now. It's a fairly large position and if I didn't have a position right now, I would buy in right now but I don't want to over expose myself which I probably have already. But if it continues to take dump like this, I will be forced to put in another large position since I still believe there is more upside potential than down. But what do I know, I've been thinking that for the past couple of weeks now :( BTW the volume is pretty amazing.
ReplyDeleteonly advise I can give ... do not average down on a loosing position. This may not be the case here for UNG. But think about it. When you took the position, did you consider it would make a new 52-week low? So the trade changed, it was not what you set it out to be. One of my quotes I used to have up here "do not get married to a loosing position". A mistake I have made many times in the past.
ReplyDeleteTrading is not easy, otherwise everyone would be doing it. However, we have to go into a trade with clear plans and clear confirmations. I assume a new 52-week low was not one of those confirmations. I am not saying to get out, but take what you have learned from UNG - and apply it in the future.
The greatest learning lessons for me have been from loosing positions - the BEST ever, have been on positions where I lost a LOT of money. The more money I have lost, the better the learning experience. Take that as a positive. If you do end up in a bad trade, try to walk away with a bruised eye, but not broken legs.
In the mid term, I see a lot more downside for the entire commodities sector, short term wise - I am unsure as the dollar is still not quite with a trend yet - but once the trend is in - you NEED to be on the right side of the trade. The past 2 months we have had the luxury of getting out of bad trades very easily - this will not continue to be the case as we move into summer.
Thanks for your advice Chris. Unfortunately I let emotions take control and now I don't want to let go and take such a huge hit. I'm just hoping for the best, and you're right, I really did think the bottom was in and wouldn't have thought it would make a new 52 week low. I am still learning and if I did have a stop in place, I wouldn't be suffering this draw down.
ReplyDeletewe have all been there. Trust me. what does not kill us makes us stronger. I am sure you will not make that mistake again.
ReplyDeleteKeep in mind, there are ALWAYS opportunities in the market - just be patient and wait for the right time.