The trendlines are holding up very nicely here. Again no changes have been made since we had created them so its good for us to be able to use this as a guide.Technically we have a few things to deal with, a day like today usually closes at its highs as there is a total lack of sellers so I am preparing for a last hour push to break 900.
At the same time this trendline here is the maximum I would expect if our mid term trend is down. A break on this trendline here will change short term to bullish and mid term to bullish as well - so a lot is on the line here.
Chris, when you say trend line to hold or not do you mean for 1, 15, 30, 60 minutes chart? which one? Thanks
ReplyDeletethe trendline we are currently touching. 4th from the bottom on the 60min chart above. As you can see on MACD it has completed 2 waves, its very possible that we can complete another wave 3 here bringing us all the way to the other side (just like the two weeks ago).
ReplyDeletesigh ... more upside. Expecting a close at 904 here.
ReplyDelete902.75 close today ... highest probability.
ReplyDeleteIt looks like we will hit the top chanel tomorrow. will you be shorting there or you think now we could go to 912-920 etc levels. Thanks
ReplyDeleteadded some shorts here via SKF/SRS
ReplyDeletehighly probable to get continuation tomorrow to mark the high at 10:15-10:20. Will be adding puts there.
Also in via futures short here. Wide stop again, this time only mental.
I am sure you have seen it. 20 ema has crossed 50 ema on daily chart and that should set it up for IT trend down for couple of months. Last time it did was in march 2009 and we got three months of rally.
ReplyDeleteGS earinigs should be an anti-climax, when it comes out. expectations are too high or you think Meredith did it purposely so her clients who may short will benefit. Just being skeptical.
No 20/50 ema crossover just yet - check out the zoomed-in view
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p88315345734
Mr. trader you are right by the chart you have shown. on my schwab trading window I relaized I was plotting simple mda. my mistake.
ReplyDeleteChris,
ReplyDeleteMortie made some comments that appear very relevant to your bad-beat trade.
http://www.bostonwealth.net/2009/07/13/morties-eod-13jul2009-tomorrows-action-critical/
Just something to keep in mind when trading futures and holding overnight - appears to be prudent advice.
Exerpt: "It made a serious run at the 865.25 level that I said could not be violated. It stopped short of messing up my count, at least on globex, and then rallied all the way back up. So what was that about? News? I don’t think so! You don’t think they would run all the stops before a big range day do you? I see this all the time on the intraday charts, and the trick is to keep your stops far enough away on intraday or stop out, fade the move and reenter. In this case, I reentered at 866.50 knowing that I had a hard stop at 865 because that would ruin the count I believed in. It got all the way down to 865.50 and reversed. One thing I have noticed is that the “stop-runners” - little market gremlins - are careful to not violate important swing lows and highs because they know that may trigger something they don’t want. The strong hands then pick up the low hanging fruit on the way back up and the rest of the day is history. That may not be what is happening, because I don’t know the inner workings of the market and the manipulators. But that certainly is what it feel and looks like to me, and that story keeps me out of a lot of trouble."
Shoot, I didnt look at the comments and now i see you have already checked and commented on the post...my mistake
ReplyDelete