I should have held to my quote on the right hand side - do not get married to a position, and well, my mistress was Mrs Short for the past few weeks (and months). Of course nothing has changed for me, I am going to continue to watch the market for a short entry, turning bullish is not for me, not after such a strong rally even if it means we go to 1200. Not going to have any part of it.
I will probably be a bit away from the blog the next few days as I get my mind clear and detach myself from an emotional roller coaster ride of the past 6 weeks.
But trust me, will be here daily to check up .... now let the markets drop as I have covered it all =) you know how it goes. You may use me as your new bear market rally end indicator.
you not going to believe what I did today. I went long while I was having breakfast via futures. Only one contract to test myself if I could do it. Avg price was 2 ticks off the low. I closed it out within 15 minutes at break even. Now up a nice amount.
ReplyDeleteSomething is seriously wrong with me lol
That finger just itching :)
ReplyDeletehah yeah ...
ReplyDeleteseems like we are setting up for a move down here ... get back in? lol
I am looking for a doji today. If so I will add to EEV. No shorting...
ReplyDeletehave to admit, not sure what to expect here. I am a bit mentally exhausted - so going to give it a few days before I get back into it full time.
ReplyDeleteok hit or miss time. If we stay above 103.14 SPY until 2:15PM get ready for more upside.
ReplyDeleteI just did a scalp short here looking for this target (will close out regardless).
what I mean by more upside is a new HOD and possibly a new high this week. EURUSD is dropping a bit which is good for the bearish cash BUT its been up quite strong today so it could just be a mere retracement to let indicators catch up.
ReplyDeletewow just wow ... 103.94 in play now lol
ReplyDeleteits quite funny looking at my spy chart. I keep all my horizontal lines (support and resistance) that I draw week after week (yeah makes a busy chart) but yet again I am seeing myself in a situation where I only have one horizontal line left on the upside - got to make new ones tonight =)
ReplyDeleteI went short one contract at 1035. stop at 1036. according to Mortie's chart. at http://bostonwealth.net/
ReplyDeletealmost same entry for me. 5 min stalling - lets see if we can make a meaningful move down at least a few points. But based on what I am seeing, stepping day yet again and should close at the highs. I am thinking we may even make a new SPX high for the year today as many bears cover.
ReplyDeleteSuch low volume is just the perfect squeeze ...
Mortie's red arrow show 1028 and bounce back up. I intend to cover at 1029. Little at a time. How does future expiration work? same as option or you rollover to the enxt month? I am learing the mechanics. Can you invest in a long term future similar to option or all the play is around the next month? Thanks Chris.
ReplyDeletejust buy current ones and roll them before expiration. the further out ones have bad liquidity. So when I keep them longer as IT positions I just cover/sell, or sell/buy for next one.
ReplyDeletecovered here. Not looking like anything will come out of it. Yeah we may get a retracement but its possible we go higher first before some profit taking occurs.
ReplyDeleteAnd remember, its a stepping day, so minimize all counter trend trades and get it out if it does not do what you think.
We can always get it later ....
Luckily followed your plan and made small change at 1033.50
ReplyDeleteyou think we topped here or you see HOD yet to come?
ReplyDeleteasking myself the same question. The important thing now is being able to differentiate between a simple retracement as we are quite overbought or a trend change.
ReplyDeleteWe made a new high on NASDAQ, SPX yet to follow. Dollar low - honestly, I am not sure anymore. Yes a significant top takes a long time to build and this could be it. If we close in the reds today of course I would feel a bit better, chances are definitly there.
Short term wise, at this point I think the HOD was made and we start some type of retracement, the question remains, is it a retracement to go higher? or is it a trend change finally ....
well, here we go, now just give me a red close and all my puts are coming back on.
ReplyDeleteit is following the red arrow path drawn by Mortie. 1020 is in the card.
ReplyDeletea bounce to may be 1033 and down to 1020
ReplyDeleteI am thinking double top here ... will post some reason behind it after the close. Just added some puts back but also long ES just now as a hedge in case they ramp it into the close.
ReplyDeleteIf they do, I can get out break even, if it goes lower I stop out of ES and let the puts run for another few points.
1032 is right at 50sma
ReplyDeleteok 3:15pm - magic time to initiate a sell off. I am slightly down but glad I took my ES long here =)
ReplyDeleteputs around 75% hedged, around 8% invested so this is a small try for me to make it work =)
ReplyDeletewell did not work out as planned lol. Minimized some puts again, closed out hedge by hand (closed because I got rid of some puts). So 4% invested now short - tiny =)
ReplyDelete