Wednesday, September 16, 2009

At the expense of sounding like a total idiot

Well, this here does qualify for a blow off top. You remember I had mentioned it in the comments a few times that I was looking for one last big FAST push of at least 15 points - market going parabolic here ...

Not much you can do as a bear to be honest - just sit and wait, or feel pain if you are already short - I am sure many have scaled out quite heavily here and are either out or just watching. While I have some shorts here its more a watching type of position for me as the exposure is quite small.

The last 2 weeks - just amazing, feels like July all over again.
Posted by chaugner at 12:09 PM

14 comments:

  1. chaugnerSeptember 16, 2009 at 1:23 PM

    ok just added my last chunk of puts here. Currently 25% exposed short. Also added some ES again as I was stopped out before.

    ReplyDelete
  2. samamehtaSeptember 16, 2009 at 1:37 PM

    short at es z 1062.25. let us see what happens now

    ReplyDelete
  3. chaugnerSeptember 16, 2009 at 1:39 PM

    yeap =) ... If this here was the HOD (30% chance) we should close in the high 105X range today and hopefully trend lower overnight.

    ReplyDelete
  4. samamehtaSeptember 16, 2009 at 2:03 PM

    I do not know. It does not go below even 20 sma. it bounces off. stop at 1063.25. will try to get in at higher price.

    ReplyDelete
  5. samamehtaSeptember 16, 2009 at 2:13 PM

    may be short term top for at least 20 points. I raised my stop to 1064.25. 20 sma is flattening. and macd is sloping down. voulme on the rising declining. there has to be bull whipsaw too around 1050.

    ReplyDelete
  6. chaugnerSeptember 16, 2009 at 2:14 PM

    this is looking like one last small push up for another 3-4 pts. My bet would be 1071 within the next 25 minutes.

    Otherwise drop within 8 minutes from here (by 2:25PM)

    ReplyDelete
  7. samamehtaSeptember 16, 2009 at 2:20 PM

    Now Chris, you are back to your form. all market needs is an ultimatum from you. you have been good in past

    ReplyDelete
  8. samamehtaSeptember 16, 2009 at 2:26 PM

    Twitter from Mortie:
    MortiES' Tip ~ Watch for strong resistance at 1063.75! $ES_F$$
    about 1 hour ago from web

    ReplyDelete
  9. chaugnerSeptember 16, 2009 at 2:30 PM

    yeap and the last push failed. I had called for at least 3 points after the upper range was broken and it did not even do one and reversed lower .... however we have not had a single retracement lol so lets give it some time first. We still have the last hour of madness that could push this all the way higher here

    ReplyDelete
  10. chaugnerSeptember 16, 2009 at 2:34 PM

    also VIX is up ... whenever both SPX and VIX are up the same day the next day has a VERY high chance of closing in the reds (as per cobra)

    ReplyDelete
  11. samamehtaSeptember 16, 2009 at 2:39 PM

    now let us see, if penetrates 50 sma. that will seal the deal.

    ReplyDelete
  12. samamehtaSeptember 16, 2009 at 3:34 PM

    I am out at break even. as it bounced off 5o sma. I may be sorry tomorrow as it may gap down.

    ReplyDelete
  13. samamehtaSeptember 16, 2009 at 3:39 PM

    Chris, what is you crystal ball here? One more push up to 1080? 1097? or 1070?

    ReplyDelete
  14. samamehtaSeptember 16, 2009 at 7:26 PM

    according to Mortie, who made perfect calls last few days, drop to 1058 ES then either contnue drop or bounce to 1068 ES i.e. 1072 spx? Or gap up to 1068 ES and then down.
    http://bostonwealth.net/

    ReplyDelete

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)