Its interesting to see that every retracement of a major top we have had during this rally has gotten smaller and smaller. 930 to 870, 1038 to 990, 1075 to only 1057. Again I have to admit the last few days seemed corrective in nature so the current upper ranges may not be the last level we reach before starting another possibly shallow retracement yet again. So we have to be ready for another bigger push on the upside that at this point is very clear with a breach of the 1074-1075 ranges. If we make it above those levels I think we have to accept the possibilities for another 40 points at the minimum. DOW at 10K is just around the corner ...
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
Short Update Again
Not much to say here - we have a potential double top. Keep in mind that our previous double tops have ultimately lead to higher prices. We do have the advantage here of having our previous October 2008 big bear gap that got filled and should hold off the market at least on the short term.
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no trades for me today. Will wait out volume and direction after the fed crazyness ....
ReplyDeleteSOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT:
ReplyDeleteshortlong 2 minutes ago
Market has excuse to go up or down after the fed story.
If no change in interest : go up as usual. or go down because the fed is not convinced of the recovery
If int. rate sheduled to go up: go up as the recovery is cast in stone. go down as the sky is falling and inflation is here.
If this is top it will go down
OTHERWISE WE SEE 1080 AND MORE IN FEW MINUTES.
good point and supports the old saying "news will not affect the market" .... I honestly believe we will see more upside, maybe not today, this month, but longer term, I am 51% sold on the idea that the bear market maybe over .... (FYI I am still short lol)
ReplyDeletewhat do you say here Chris? spike up is over?
ReplyDeletewait till end of day before making any calls. Volume is not that strong yet .... probably another few points for today but should not be much more.
ReplyDeletewell I did say I was not going to trade - almost lol. Added more long term puts. Also got a very small set of october ones. Also went short EURUSD again.
ReplyDeleteALL small positions with tight stops.
do we have a minin reversal here? maybe 5 wave down to 1040?
ReplyDeleteLets see what happens in the morning tomorrow. But yes it is looking like a strong chance to get back to 1040 at least.
ReplyDeleteit seems that no one believes this down move. bulls or bears. Just like it kept going up, it will keep going down
ReplyDeleteLook at the ES volume wow!!!
ReplyDelete