Short update. As mentioned in the comments on Monday:
"Unfortunately for today [Monday] any sell offs should be fairly tame and stay above 1055. However, tomorrow and wednesday is key. If we remain above 1055 but close below 1060 we should have a narrow sideways day tomorrow. Then wednesday the direction will be decided in the first 90 minutes of trading."
Well the market did exactly that and should come to a decision today as I had mentioned yesterday. The question remains if we will turn higher or lower and unfortunately I have no edge today. Same ranges apply and we need to let the market decide at key ranges where it wants to go. A break of 1055 will bring us to 1018, break of 1071-1074 MAY lead to the dreaded 1100 range. We still have the 1080 to overcome so the upper side is a bit more difficult.
Morning Chris, back in the US again but heading for a root canal today...same feeling as being a bear for the last 6 months. Been watching the dollar lately and wondering which is the chicken and which is the egg; does the dollar move first and influence equities or is it the other way around? Maybe they're just linked and move in tandem..? Hoping for some insight....these next few days should be interesting. Thanks.
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wow nice - it seems we have been spot on after the monday rally. Sideways yesterday and decision today in first 90 minutes of trading. This is not looking corrective here ... I would expect a light rally back to 1058-1062 before we move lower.
ReplyDeleteWill be looking to add more shorts soon ....
holy crap .... really ... never expected that. At least now we have our decision - and what a decision it was.
ReplyDeleteThis here is a perfect example of how news does NOT affect the market. We had known about this move (not direction) since Monday lunch time - regardless of the news.
If I remember my geometry classes correctly...the slope of that line is "undefined" haha...
ReplyDeletelol ... it just keeps on going. I mean really. My long term puts just made a BIG swing in terms of value. Considering adding more puts here (even after this drop) - 13 points of pain is 100% acceptable at this point. Yes we may get some better prices, but in a week from now we will be below this price here.
ReplyDeleteok added puts here. Still keeping some ready for another 5 points upside potential. No stops yet.
ReplyDelete1057.30-1057.80 is the key range to watch here on the upside. This will decided whether this was a simple ABC correction as I had hinted at earlier OR the start of a much needed retracement that is a bit larger in size ...
ReplyDeleteAt this point I would say 60% we are done on the upside (meaning a new high). One can dream - a close in the low 1040 range today would put this probability closer to 80%.
holy crap I walked away for 30 minutes and look what you guys did lol
ReplyDeletewasn't me...!
ReplyDeleteI have to admit, as bearish as it looked this morning. This here puts a lot of weight on the past few days being a simple ABC correction. If you take a look at on the 15 min SPX, you will see that on a larger scale this is a nice ABC move to now take on new highs.
ReplyDeleteAt the same time, again, we are making slightly lower highs here on the 15 min as well, so this could be a down channel building up.
I was long at ES 1044 and out at 1055. Now short at 1057.
ReplyDeleteI think we make new high here. small drop and up.
out of all positions from today - made $250 lol, does not even cover commissions hah
ReplyDeletestill holding onto my longer term stuff without any change to those positions.
I think we are getting more downside today/tomorrow - but the positions from today, not the best entries and management on those. So being able to walk away break even from some bad trades is always a good thing =)
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