Monday, December 13, 2010
While I have been busy working hard and not spending much time on the markets I just took a decent size short position here with stop just at high of day. Never thought we would get to the 1245 but here we are and here I am trying a position with what seems a good risk/reward ratio trade.
Posted by chaugner at 10:42 AM
Tuesday, October 12, 2010
Monday, October 4, 2010
Ok here is a more detailed update. We have a lot going on at the moment and the market is poised for a directional change. At this point I am considering three distinct scenarios.
1) Breakout to the upside - during this scenario we will overcome the MACD bearish cross and may remain at a "close-to-zero" MACD divergence. The market has done this before and considering that everything is bullish it can do so again. A break on the upside would be a challenging technical endeavor as we have to overcome the Jan 2010 resistance.
2) Pull back to MA cluster - we have a HUGE extremely tight cluster of key moving averages. Ranging from 20/50/200 dailies and 34 exp. All of those are extremely bullish at the moment and are clustered in a 25 pt range. Its extremely rare for all of those averages to converge in such a tight range.
3) Bearish ABCD for a larger AB with C to come - the light blue lines could indicate a quite bearish gartley pattern and at the same time setting up for our B leg having completed last week thursday and now entering Leg C towards new lows below 1K.
This week will be crucial to let us know what pattern will play out. The highest probabilities lie within scenario 2, scenario 1 and 2 are considered the lowest probable scenarios but depending on price action below 1130SPX we can identify what the market holds for us.
Posted by chaugner at 11:46 AM
Friday, October 1, 2010
Added to shorts here again at 1145 with stop at 1159 SPX.
1:22PM: A bit concerned at this sideways action here around the 1145. I took a small bit off the position here just to minimize some of the risk. Improved my avg price slightly compared to yesterday so thats great, but overall getting a bit concerned by not seeing enough follow through. I am still confident that we may see more selling into the last 1.5 hours but rather be safe especially with the upcoming weekend and the standard sunday night bear scare.
Posted by chaugner at 10:05 AM