Some charts

Double FIBs

I had posted this one earlier on TTW:

This here is one that struck me as quite important, whenever you have double FIB price levels we have to respect them quite a bit more compared to single FIB levels. One of them is the big all time high to 666 and of course our last rally off the lows.

As we are looking at a longer term chart we have to assume that the resolution (if at all) on any upside will be a bit stronger. One of my biggest challenges in 09 was the understanding of the break of 38% fib levels as we kept on rallying in 09. This break paved the way for more upside and broke my views of SPX480

Dont worry - got lots of bearish charts too but this is what currently supports my positions so I wanted to share it with everyone.

ABC Time

This is another bullish beauty. This is a time study from top to B top (if this is a correction) to final C low.

2009 Jun-Jul: 15 days top to top, 5 days to bottom

2010 Jan-Feb: 11 days top to top, 4 days to bottom

Now: 40 days top to top, 9 days to bottom

We are fairly close time wise however our correction has been a lot stronger in terms of price and overall duration. One argument for this length of the duration of course is hitting an important price point of 61% of the entire bear in addition to our crash lows that have severely damaged supply and demand in the 1040-1180 price range. We can also do other studies on those previous ABCs for more accurate time relationships but this one stuck with me a bit more.

More coming this week.

What the bulls need !!

(or should I say what I need for my longs lol).

Close needs to be above 1033SPX today or we will have some quite severe consequences for building a bull case here for the short/mid term.

EDIT: will be posting lots of charts in the coming days, many bullish but also some really juicy bearish patterns.

4:01PM: We did close green but not a victory day today and feeling quite uneasy about being exposed on the long side. Today can be justified as a great trapping day for both sides of the trade. Overnight action with a new low on ES, bull gap up with big retrace, bear fake with the gap and run higher and the tease on breaking the 61% intraday retrace by a marginal new low just to rally slightly into the close leaving bulls and bears without any real trade to put on for a swing. 50+ point intraday range is not what a "healthy" market should be doing but on the other hand its the much needed quest for finding the right balance of buyers and sellers. Remember bull markets do not need the volume, bears do need volume to confirm lower prices. At the end, I am a bit shaken again and not quite sure of what the market wants to do.

Inside Day

Well a nice inside day today, even with a negative close this still has a lot of bullish potential. Inside days after prolonged down trends generally resolve to the upside on the next candle (as a GAP higher the majority of the time).

We have a lot of bullish signals at the moment, key support, extended oversold conditions so even if we just get some consolidation we should make it back to 1060-1065 at the minimum. Of course there is always the potential of a big down move and GAP below major support which would require us to open below 1000SPX on tuesday. This could be very news driven and we have to be careful and watch the markets on Sunday/Monday via futures and FX.

Again, enjoy the weekend and see you all next week (or Sunday night).

Back again

Looks like the LOD was just made. A break here and we go down strong but very low probabilities. I added a tiny bit on the long side here just now at ES @ 1011.50 but stops at break even for this chunk.

1:14PM: need to take out 1016 in the next 8 minutes. Look for TICK to get confirmations

1:35PM: market struggling here to confirm the LOD. Lower volume on selling now so thats positive but need to get above 1016 to keep this protected.

1:48PM: next target now ES1020.50

3:27PM: off by half a point lol. Closed the longs from earlier here. Keeping everything entered yesterday.

Happy 4th !!!!

Will be away from trading all day today (world cup). Keeping longs in place with stop at break even. Job numbers in 5 minutes and its very unlikely I will change anything on positions even if the number disappoints.

Have a great long weekend everyone. Happy 4th !!!!