Possible High

It is very possible that we just made a short to mid term top in this range here. I was expecting us to get a few points higher but I believe we topped on the short term. I currently hold no position but am looking to go short again for the next 5 days at the minimum.

We have 2 scenarios that can unfold here, a standard pull back towards the bullish daily moving averages which is step 1, and a potential for a much more bearish formation that at this point I will give little credibility.

The afternoon and tomorrow morning will be a deciding factor for the next 1-2 weeks. I will post a more detailed update tonight or tomorrow morning with a few more technical justifications.

Short ES again

Trying my luck again as per twitter. Bulls are in control hence a tight stop on this position.

Long time no talk - short ES here

Been quite busy with work but following the market every day. Been a very patient bear in hiding but came out today and just opened a new short position via ESZ10 @ 1118 with a stop of 6pts.

Wish us luck =)

EDIT: stops will likely be adjusted within the next 2 hours.

11:11AM: stops moved to a tick above HOD

11:18AM: we will likely see a retest of the highs today with a potential for a marginal 2 pt higher high. Will keep stops a bit flexible on part of the position.

12:25PM: stops at breakeven now and "walking away" - this should be setting up for a move towards 1102SPX and possibly into the 108X next.

Long ES @ close

Took a long position into the close today. Tight stop 2 pts below LOD.

Sorry for having been MIA but between travel and being a bit sick have not had much time to post but following every day. We are setting up for a nice divergence again on the decl/adv ratio on the daily, so we have a high chance that todays LOD will not be broken.

However, on the bearish side, this is a perfect close for a nice GAP down below support and strong follow through lower for tomorrow. So I am playing it a bit on the cautious side here as I do not want to get caught holding a looser.

Expanding Triangle with Time Fibs

This is something I have been playing with the past few days. A very unlikely scenario but one that could be used for a trade with a limited amount of risk. Why limited?

So take a short at those levels (anywhere from 1140-1150) with a stop around 1180. If market keeps on trucking towards 1170, double down on position there and get out on retracement (you dont need much of a retracement to exit position at break even or with small loss).

If the market retraces back towards 1100, then it gets a bit tricky. Depending on how it bounces (likely back to retest 1130) and how the coming rally will resolve technically one can make some great calls on whether this pattern will come true. On break you can double down on your position likely around 1080 with a stop at the recent rally high (the rally off 1100).

This could turn out to be an extremely low risk trade with a potential for some really nice gains. As this is a longer term trade you can start position sizes quite small without too much pain if we are wrong.

In terms of giving this pattern credit here, I would say maybe 3 out of 10, so its not something I feel quite strong about but the risk/reward makes this a bit more interesting.

Also take a look at the time relationships here - from top to bottom, 38% hit the first top, 61% could be inline with our upside targets towards next week right between 1140-1150.