Thursday, September 18, 2008

Done for now at least

Ok, yesterday did not play out the way I anticipated at all. Found myself yet again trying to be a hero and being the first at the bottom for recovery. I indicated that my feel was that the 1175 will hold. In the morning hours we gapped at the open right at my 4th low 1187, one level above my 1175. I traded both lows with the anticipation of going up and had to close each position. Unfortunately I did not believe in my own scenario two. I said that if we are unable to break 1200 we will see new lows. High of the day came in at 1199, we did not break and create new lows - a move I had anticipated before the day started but ignored it througout trading (slap me in the face please)

We have had 3 consequitive days of VIX staying above the 30 range, created 2 new lows in 3 days and lost 8+% on the entire market. Looking at the retracement from previous lows we can say the low is on on this trend.

After such an extensive, volitaile and fear loaded move we are done on the downside in the short term. Thanks for the SEC we now have stricter rules on naked short selling which will help the market. Yesterday was the last day of pushing down those beaten up financials.

Time and Price
We can use yesterdays numbers as nothing has changed. While we had a huge sell off at the end of the day those lows will not be reached today. To avoid confusion I will remove the high/low comments for now as gap openings may confuse people on how to read those numbers.

1200 - a number we need to break on the upside. This can either happen today or tomorrow.
1175 - I would expect this to be a bottom for today after the morning gap/break
1169 - of course the first new low from monday
1161 - what I would consider the low. I know we reached the 1155 but this was quite a fear driven low. In the future the 1155 will play an important role again but not the next few days of trading

Mid Term
Mid term wise what I said yesterday still holds. We should expect a 70-80 point rally from here on out which brings us right at the 1229 mark. This is my first target before we can make further decisions on how far up we can go. The primary trend is still in so be careful on buying and holding as this is not a reversal. My call for the october lows still exists and I feel we will see 10xx soon.

No comments:

Post a Comment