Thursday, September 25, 2008

Wait and see

Buffets GS investment did not lift the markets as I expected and we seemed to sell off yet again in the last hour of the trading day just to get a huge push in the last minute to bring us right back to where we started the day.

Considering our down run since Friday morning one should expect a bit of a rally. The game at least in the short term is wait for congress to see what will happen with the bill. It seems we are getting a bit closer to an agreement. I do have to admit both paulson and bernake are not looking as strong and confident as they should be - I would have expected more precise and detailed statements and support for their $700 billion dollar bailout. I have yet to see a justification other then "this is the number we feel we need".

Time and Price
Pre-market we are right at the 1200 range today though I would not expect a drastic move as everyone is waiting and watching what is going to happen.

Mid Term
We are right in front of a path that can lead us very strong into one specific direction. We have 2 major components to consider - of course the bailout and the short sell rule. All I can say is get your money ready for next week - whichever way its going to go I would expect at least a 100+ point move over a 2 week time frame. Anyone trading the S&P using options is getting a great starting position on monday as the second september options are expiring this week giving you a better value on the october options as Monday/Tuesday seems to be the day for the move.

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