Thursday, October 23, 2008

Oh we had a decision alright ...

Well the decisions is there, it can;t get any clearer then this. Violent move to the downside and fear setting in again.

Today / Time and Price
Watch the bottom at 839, if we are to break we have one more chance to find support around the 820 range. If we are to get support at the 865 it should be short lived as we are so close from the previous bottom.

Mid & Long Term
We could be on our ways to form a double bottom, however, this is not something I anticipate. During times of a double bottom technicals and fundamentals are more neutral allowing prices to stablize around the previous bottom and gather strength for a rally. At the moment fundamentals are very negative, earnings starting and reports have been very negative, with guidance being adjusted downwards for pretty much any industry.

I am starting to get worried about where we are headed. Looking at it from a big picture of society and the last decade - this could be the big crash, the big adjustment or change that will come. Presidential elections with a fairly left candidate that is most likly going to win, double top from our previous dot com peak, the end of wall street and investment banks. The days of the US being the poster child of capitalism and opportunity could be at an important turning point. The government is doing everything possible in an attempt to fix a problem that is in reality not fixable. Now even more then before I believe that we will be headed for a lot more lows in the next 2 years. We will see the 400 mark on the S&P long term, not this year, maybe not in the next 6-12 months but it will occur.

When looking at the markets and investments from the average consumer - the past 30 years have shown one and only one message - start investing into the market place, 401K's, put your money into companies and you will be able to build your retirement without any worries. What will happen if we drop another 40%? Americans and many others who have relied on this strategy to retire will be left with nothing to retire from. Look at europe and their way of retirements being supported by the government - no one is waiting for this big payout from investments - you work hard you entire life and will be taken care off. This concept does not exist in the US, nor did it need to exist - but what will happen to those, who depend on their 401ks, retirement accounts and other investments when they will have lost 75% in value and nothing else is there to support them?

I am concerned, very concerned ...

I apologize for given such a grim negative message today, I hope I am wrong in many of my points but we have to start to accept the fact that this is possible - the sooner we realize this and do not get caught in denial the more able we are to do something about it for ourselves.

No comments:

Post a Comment