Wednesday, October 8, 2008

Too much too late ...

Well, as mentioned before I stayed out of trading the past few sessions. Yesterday however I initiated positions after careful analysis on Mondays trade action as we had all technical signs of a v-bottom. I entered quite a few positions of stocks that have been very undervalued and will show huge gains during a bear market rally - however, as you all could see the bottom was not in. I held on to my position anticipating the fed rate cut that did not come. The market was waiting for this sign and the feds/govt have yet again missed the timing window. I applaud the feds, SEC and government of the extraordinary efforts they are putting together, however, timing is the key, and they have failed at that, a rate cut yesterday would have confirmed the monday bottom and initiated the rally.

In further efforts to stabilize the markets the feds and other global institutions have cut interest rates (finally but too late). Additionally the feds will now DIRECTLY lend to corporations and bypass the banks if needed - a measure that was only taken during the great depression. Further breakdowns should occur as the market has no confidence, anyone that has tried to go long (me included) has been slapped in the face over and over again. There is no one left to buy.

When looking at equities at the moment we are at valuation levels that have not been seen in a very long time, yet there is too much risk to the downside, once the bottom is in get ready for a frenzy. Make your list now of what you want to own, I tell you, there is a lot out there.

Time and Price

990 is our 200dma on the monthly chart
955 (I cannot believe I am saying this) could be the bottom today, we should expect quite a bit of support in this area.

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