Friday, November 21, 2008

Hungover after a wild ride ...

I am speechless, honestly, I have been waiting for this number for 2 months now, preparing myself for the proper entry and exit strategy. I missed my entry due to emotional reactions - bought too soon - caught it half way then missed my exit as I was expecting the rally to continue just to have to close a position in the reds. Lucky for me with the proper protection in place and the head/shoulder reversal I had no choice but to abandon my position.

Yesterday was an extremely bearish sign, not holding the 764-770 range and breaking it within the SAME Day on extremly high capitulation like volume is not good for us. I talked about that 1% chance of a capitulation type sell off yesterday - would have never put this into my considerations in a million years.

Any long trades that I thought could be had to maintain the 2 months rally I keep on referring to are too risky to enter. 3 months from 1300 to 750 - in 3 staggering months !!!!! Half way I was trying to find the bottom and go long just to get beaten up, now it seems I am bound to make that same mistake again - at one point yesterday I was up almost 15% of my entire cash capital - its always easy to say in retrospect but at this point the trade is to take any profits as soon as you can and play a maximum of 30 points on the upside of major support points.

At this point I have difficulties trying to determine the next move, of course I think we are overdone on the downside but everyone else believes the same. Previously, government intervention and other efforts have been able to stablize the markets - this is not occuring anymore. From here we have a decent chance to continue on the downside until we see the 650 in the short term.

Today will be a telling day after our captitulation from yesterday - we had no support or any attempts at the upside after our run down. Of course we are moving too fast too low but that is no excuse to go long. From 1007 to 750 in less then 3 weeks. Thats 25% !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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