Wednesday, November 19, 2008

On the other side again ...

Well yesterday played out as anticipated, we bounced off our upper trend line and went lower to retest the previous lows - it is very important that we can see our descending triangle being broken now for the second time, we needed to stay above the 846 range to have another chance on the upside and we did not. We have now had 2 spikes below that very important trend line, both of them recovered within hours which is a bit of a bullish sign, the market is trying to avoid the big breakdown to 764 - though there is nothing keeping us from there.

Well both of my trades worked out to perfection yesterday. As I do have a full time job I am not always able to act on those but anyone who read my review clearly saw the test of the upper end. My call was for 868-882 and the high of the day was 865.90. Great short entry here to run down to the next level. Here again my call was for the 820 with the low of the day at 826.84 - closely looking at time/price/volume you would have been able to forsee the early reversal - to top this trade off I called for a 30 point rally ... 826.84 + 30 = 856.85 ... we rallied till 859.12 the close of the day.

Today & Time & Price
The market is going to retest the upper range of the current down trend. This should find its top around the 882 range. We have to be mindful here for a potential retest of this range before the final downturn. If we are to break the 882 which I think will not occur we can see 900's again.

On the lower end I would expect us to stop at the 846 though this may only be a small test. It is my feel that the majority of the time will be spend on the upper ranges today.

How to trade this?
Well today we have to remain a bit more cautious. Of course look for the continuation of the rally with a top anywhere between 871-882. This would be a great short entry but needs to be monitored closely. The important thing to watch for is the sell off from this range and the first peak - if we are to re-test and possibly go all the way to 882 (in case we topped out too soon) the sell off should not exceed 10 points. Do not be scared of this retest. With the proper stop losses right above you minimize your risk exposure by quite a bit.

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