Tuesday, September 8, 2009

Comment Cleaner

Will try to get a post in before market open. SPX fair value saw a nice ramp up yesterday and our 1012-1014 has yet again been broken on the upside. I had said last week that this pattern is bearish all the way to 1021 and just now we hit 1025.

The big move however, is in EURUSD, 3 days of strong moves higher and currently above the highest close for the year. I am glad I made the right technical choice and close out a lot of my short exposure on friday. Wish I had done more. I will be looking to minimize my exposure even further at the open as we can count with a nice 1% GAP that should resolve in a stepping day. Lets see what futures will do before the open but I doubt we see any downward pressure especially with EURUSD making strong moves like that.


  1. decision here, trend day or not a trend day. Stuck at the resistance from last week monday. If we break the HOD, get ready for another 7-8 points on top of the HOD.

  2. Damn just read about your big profits turning into losses. =/ That sucks! Maybe you should consider tweaking your exit strategy a little.
    I made my first trade this morning in about a month. You can probably guess who i shorted lol...tight stop.

  3. welcome =)

    Trust me, hindsight I wish I had taken some profits, but that still does not change the plan I had. Those positions were built over a longer time frame, not just a one or two day thing but I had been scaling in for weeks. When the market finally turned into my direction out of the chop zone my trade should have continued into my direction ... should is the key word. As we reversed it was not the same trade anymore.

    For the past 2 months I have been purely focused on long term positions (minimum of 2 months). My first profit target was 906-930 range and my first hedge targets had been 980 at the minimum.

    Neither one of them happened and this trade is not the one I was setting up for so I had not choice but to minimize. This will be my last longer term short position for a while here.

    Its looking more and more like more upside from here, I cannot deny that even if we get a visit back to 1000 SPX. I will most likely go back to short term trading (I hate it) but thats how I had made most of my money in the past. No harm in making some bucks consistently through short term moves. Its just that I had given myself the illusion that the drop from those insane elevated levels is something to be profited from. Unfortunately it did the exact opposite and put me in a very large drawdown situation.

    If I purely focus on short term trading, the rally off the march lows will probably take me 12 months to recover from (I am guessing more lol). Now IT position wise, its a very different story - thats why I keep on trying but I am at my last bit here. I am at my absolute limit in terms of how much I can expose myself to in terms of losses - not gonna take more of that =)

  4. you life and you learn - this one here ... HUGE learning experience. I do not want to rehash my past few months, everyone knows they have been horrible so I am looking at it in a positive manner.

    1) it will never happen again
    2) I can be profitable if I resort back to my old trading style

    Money lost is money lost, not going to try to dream up a case of "this is how I get my losses back" - you end up loosing a lot more if you do that (though it still crosses my mind every week lol)