Thursday, September 10, 2009

Updated Chart

As you remember this chart from a while ago ... the one that will haunt bears for a while ... We just touched the lower trendline here. Though this is a longer term chart so remember, there is at least a 20 point buffer in there in case my trendlines are not 100% accurate (or off by a point somewhere causing it to shift quite a bit).

One thing that is still puzzling to me is the volume - we keep on declining in volume even as we make new highs - are new buyers coming in? Nope everyone is invested and happy that they keep on making more money. No need to buy more if your buying power is exhausted. And what fuels those rallies are us bears - look at that nice jump there with the stop run. Tick was pretty darn high at a mere 1 million spy shares.

I increased my short exposure here a little bit but not by much. Closing above 1040 and I may get out 100% and wait for another time. Same old story - more money to the bulls from me (and my broker).


  1. A good comment from a blog reflecting your sentiment.
    "shortlong 0 minutes ago
    TA works when free and adequate market participation is present. In this rally since march, as I understand, volume is lacking. Those who are old enough to remember Hunt Brother's Silver rally, this could be repeat of that. Bunch of computers are buying and selling to each other hoping suckers will get in. It has not happend yet so far. If they lose paitent and stop buying the fall will be fun but painful too to watch as most of would have missed the Bear bus.

    question is --is this the repeat of Hunt brother's silver syndrom?"

  2. So chris, how does it look for today? Mortie is looking for correction any time for w4 and then up w5 to 1047-1067 next week.

  3. not sure, really, as much as I like to make a forecast. Anything is possible, look back at the move off 991.

    Remember what happened back in July off the 880 range? we kept on going and going. Looking at the price action since 991, not a SINGLE retracement. I agree that the market needs to take a breather here before continuing but I am not sure how much of a pull back we may get. At best I would say 10-12 points before making new highs.

  4. I went short at 1044. let us see what happens. raised the stop at no loss.

  5. covered at 1039 and again short at 1044 spx cash. will hold over the weekend.