I took short positions at 3:00 expecting some type of selling, and the fact that we had a 2 point range in the last hour the day before opex made me cover the position at break even anticipating a run towards 1118 as the worst case bear scenario to re-short.
Thursday, February 18, 2010
Wow
Did not expect that one ... especially after hours. Thats the first time in a while that we get something like this especially after hours. Generally its before the open but now for asia and europe to absorb this news overnight - a lot can happen on either side - another 15+ pts lower? or back to break even at the open as the recession is truly over now that the feds are tightening.
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I refused to let go and held onto my ads and eev, hope it tumbles tomorrow
ReplyDeleteI agree with you. there is a reason and strategy for choosing the timing -- AH,day before option expiration, eve before spx settlement.
ReplyDeletethis can be construed as a good sign if enough time is allowed to digest the information and spread the word.
If mkt does not tank -- interest rising, dollar rising, mkt at resistance, mkt at 61.8% fib level correction --it can shoot up to 1200 in no time.
something fishy or maybe us bears have been trained to be paranoid now.
sam I 100% agree. I was on many blogs to check what everyone is up to with that news and MANY bears are jumping up and down. I had made this post on slope last night.
ReplyDelete"lets look at perspective - not saying we keep on going higher but we have not even broken todays low. Yes the move AH was fast, strong and unexpected but realistically - it could all just be another reason for the market to go up. We are overbought short term and have hit important fib levels - that plays into "some" downside.
1) market goes up at 9:30 because the recession is really over with feds starting to raise rates
2) market goes down because the top of this "bear market" rally (if we can even call it that) was made weeks ago and this was the last violent move with the last chance to get out if you long
Between dubai, greece and all the other bad news - why are we still only a mere <5% away from our highs - and managed to close the day pretty much flat (even including the AH massacre). Only down the pts we gained today, one day, as tim said out of 9 is still pretty good if I were a bull.
We would have found some other excuse to go sideways or lower on monday/tuesday by a little but - I mean check out the RSI on the 60 min - pretty darn high. Just revisit the lower channel like we did last week - those swings were larger then what we saw now (when looking at 60 min charts it really gives you a different perspective).
So in summary - I have no clue whats going to happen, do I want to be short, heck yeah, I mean now would be perfect, go short, 9-10 pt risk. We have all taken bigger risks before but I am holding back - "better being out of the markets wishing you were in, then in the markets wishing you were out"