Thursday, April 29, 2010

Looking for 1204 around 10:25-10:35

Looking for this price range today. Anywhere from 1201 to 1206 to initiate short positions with a stop above 1212. Most likely scenario is for this price to be reached within the first hour of cash hours trading today. If we sell off right from the open I have to rethink but at the moment its looking like a good target.

SPX currently around 1200 so I would expect prices to go a bit higher first. Remember the stepping day scenarios based off the first 10 minutes of cash hours trading. In this case low would be made 2-3 pts below the open within 10 minutes and then we rally towards the above mentioned targets.

If we rally right off the gate and get to 1204 before 9:45 I may hold off first until noon to see how price/volume/time unfolds.

This is looking very much like an ABC formation or a 5 wave move (both counts can be applied) to complete W2 of the larger down move IF this is the start of a larger pull back.


  1. ok so scenario number 1 is not likely to unfold and the secondary scenario with a rally towards 1204 (or close enough) in the first 15 minutes happened.

    Now this complicates everything a bit more, as we now have the potential to absorb sellers here while keeping price controlled.

    So far a bear case to remain valid we need to see 1195 by around 11:45, then I would be much more comfortable initiating short positions. But if we are not seeing a move lower here shortly we will likely break 1204 today.

  2. 1204.16 @ 10:30AM ... good enough me thinks. Should pause here for a bit.

    seriously speaking though, based on price/time/volume here we should be breaking 1204 at some point today. I was saying earlier that we were absorbing sellers while keeping price steady, as sellers disappeared after fading into strength we were able to move higher. Take a look at the spy 1-min volume chart with volume decreasing as we move lower marginally.

    So now ... its wait mode. I did initiate a short just now, but its a small position with tight stop as I assume we will break that price range today.

  3. well, its 11:30 now, and we are trending away slowly without much pressure. While we did reach price and time targets. on the upside, we have not been able to bring fear back into positions.

    So as a result, will sit tight today, no new positions, no shorts, no longs. Lol.

    If something of note develops by 2:30PM I will update here but it is my feel that we make another high for the day. I do not think the high is yet in.

    We hit the proper retracement targets for a valid W2 but failed to deliver the price action upon reaching this level. Yes it may sell off and being short may have been the right call here, this hesitation is quite bullish, too bullish for me to take a short stance.

  4. you may remember the chart I had posted from Tuesday (rectangle) - 1181 provided enough support to bring this market right through this range again towards the upside. Have to admit, a new high (not just for the day) seems to be in the cards and a monthly close below 1200 will be difficult to achieve therefore weakening a STRONG bearish long term pattern.

  5. You know because you said that we will close at 1190 tomorrow :) Right up to close yesterday I debated whether to buy long assuming it may be the last time I saw 1180s and of course didn't so of course it is up today.
    I'll probably sit out for now until I see a new high or a drop back into the 1180s.