Friday, April 30, 2010

Contrarian - Bear Nightmare

As always lets try to put another very bullish picture in here - one that is not fundamentally supported (well we all know whats going on in europe) but technically any bear needs to be very concerned.

This is a 200dma bollinger. Take a look at the outer bands, first the upside, 3 tests with bands widening after previous contraction and a failed 4th test - Kaboom - now on the flip side we are seeing some trouble for the bear case.

Bands widening, 3 tests thus far, if we go higher here and fail to make a 4th test on the band with a break, this combo could go back towards 200dma area which spells TROUBLE for bears.

Though keep in mind SPX and USD do not have to work together, but it seems it has always worked in favor of the bulls, so this here could be more support for a bullish case for price levels MUCH higher then I am anticipating even in my dreams. If this were to play out in a bullish form over the next 6 months which technically is very possible, I would be very concerned being short.

Ok enough for now ... lets see if we can close bearish today.

EDIT: forgot to mention, price distance from 200dma - almost the same before the breakdown, now again before the breakout higher? You tell me.

1 comment:

  1. Chris... well 20 minutes to go..but who would have thought...have been tied up in meetings and was shocked to see us back in the 1180s.