Thursday, May 6, 2010

Long ES @ 1148

Started some long positions here. Its small yet but will keep those with a 12 point hard stop in place.


  1. moved stop to 1145. This here was either a bounce of oversold condition OR we stopping by 1180 next. Minimizing risk but keeping positions in place.

    If it takes out the LOD I think we go another 10+ pts. If thats the case long may not be the best move as the best we could hope for is sideways action between 1125-1160 which will result in a very different risk/reward type of trade.

    So low for this move is in and we go back to 1180 first, OR merely a technical bounce of previous high to go lower. Lets see which it is =)

  2. well things just got a bit more complicated. It does look like this was a mere technical bounce and we are heading lower.

    I hate "wanting" to close out a trade by hand, but I am tempted to let this one go. I know one has to risk money to make money. But I need to see some more conviction that selling is over before feeling good about this position.

    What concerns me even more is that we barely tagged the VWAP at 1157.50 (back then) so this supports a mere technical bounce as we were not able to drive through there.

    Top this off with a -1200 tick a few minutes ago as we approached the LOD. Yes it was reversed right away to go back to 0 within 4 minutes, BUT no volume behind there.

    I am talking myself into closing out this trade I know, but I have to admit, price action says we are going lower. If we can get a tick in the +600 area in the next 30 minutes I will be ok lol, but there are too many signs pointing towards downside.

    We have to see ... lets give it some time =)

  3. hahah there was that tick I was looking for - she listened to me this time around lolz

  4. well I guess my suspicion was correct and we are not quite done on the downside yet. Out of the trade with a small loss, not willing to risk this one here with such selling strength.

    While I am confident we will rebound to this level regardless of how much lower we may go from here - still rather watch it and use my favorite quite "better being out of the market wishing you were in, then in the markets wishing you were out"

  5. Today I bet both sides of the market with tight stops and finally came out ahead...saw the market resist and got out though it still seems to be moving. My lesson has been get out with cash still in hand...wish I had done that more earlier this week when I went long @ 1180.