Friday, December 12, 2008

I don't want to look ...

Well, I guess I was right on time. I had stressed the importance and significance of the rising wedge we have formed which is a very very (yes very) bearish sign. Of course this down move is based on fundamentals however you can see how the technical analysis tells you what will happen even before the fundamentals have played out. Its going to be an ugly christmas for many funds and traders that are long this market.

I don't even want to look. Anything possible today, 820 which has provided substantial support could be broken - we can possibly see a 8% down day today, maybe more (yes) - worst day in the market today? Who knows ....

How to trade this?
Well one would say go short off the open and get your 30+ points in. However we are more gambling then trading with proper risk protections. Yes I think the short today will return substantial gains - however, markets that are driven by fear and not rationale can jump into any direction at any point in time without any notice - be careful not to get caught up in this.

While it sounds odd - again my recommendation is to stay out today.

Mid & Long Term
Our rally is over, we will not reach the S&P targets I was referring to and we will create new lows possibly this year - regardless of the holidays. With the Big 3 bailout having failed in congress I anticipate the government will do everything in their power over the weekend to try to get fear out of this market place but I think it will be too late and little will change. They have done everything in their power to improve liquidity, taking measures that are unheard of in comparison to previous recessions. They have done a great job at preventing a substantial fear driven crash - which is ironic since we have had the biggest drop in market history in the last 3 months - but there is not much more left they can do.

I had anticipated a more organized decline towards the 400's but I think we will accelerate susbtiantially and will see this number much sooner then anticipated - it could be 3-4 months for us to get there - yes another 50% drop in 3-4 months.

I hope that many have followed my advise to close out of mutual funds and long positions on the upper end of the range - this turned out to be the right move - you locked in your gains (or losses you had) and protected yourself from further down turns. At this point those traders should remain on the sidelines - do not try to jump in because your favorite stocks seem cheap, they will go down further as well.

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