Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Decision Day ....

Well we stalled out at the previous days top and went through a corrective move. I would have expected a move a lot stronger on more volume and that did not occur. This is a fairly bullish sign and any shorts need to be careful here. Yes we moved down but this was occuring on lower volume with smaller price moves. Anyone who closed out yesterday before close did the right thing - unfortunately I was away and held the short overnight. I was protected due to a good entry but after seeing the action would have loved to close out at the end of the day.

The market has been a bit hesitant the past 2 days, considering we broke the important 890 range I would have expected much stronger moves to follow - this could turn out to be a very bearish sign as the market is not pushing higher off this range and we have had 2 days in a fairly narrow trade range.

We should see a decision occur today in the market place. If we are to get back into the 910 range without a break we will head lower and go back into the mid 800's, if we are to break the 910 and are able to break the previous double top at 917/918 we will head for the final edge of our trade range at 928-930 with a potential at the 935.

How to trade this?
Again I have to advise to stay on the sidelines, both long and short do not allow you to enter with the proper protection levels. The short would be in the 910 range but has at least 10 points worth of risk, the long on the 890 sounds a little bit better but carries about a minimum of 10 points risk (probably more).

Give it time, you will get a chance to make money. The important thing to know is that we want to enter trades with the smallest risk possible. Something that had cost me a lot of money in the past by over trading and not properly evaluating risk from entry.

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