Monday, December 15, 2008

Wrong again ...

Previous Trade Day
Well another day of not having the right call in place. I would have expected a much more negative turn on the markets on Friday as you can imagine. Overall it has been a bad week for me with forecasts with many of my calls lacking the precision I had previously - while the price points worked out (more or less) - the overall decisions and directions I was anticipating did not.

I said on Friday it is best to remain on the sidelines, however I had a strong believe in the market turning to the downside so my shorts on Friday have hurt me quite a bit. I was able to recover but still experienced quite a down day on Friday.

Yes The government mentioned the big three will receive money and the market rallied off this news - something I did not want to understand. With the bailout managed through congress we had protections in place on how to use this money, with the money coming from TARP its just money thrown out the window as we have to rely on GM, Chrysler to make the right decisions on what to do with this money, something that clearly has not worked out, maybe they are using it to pay off their big corporate jets, who knows. Using TAPR for liquidity is one thing, throwing money into a trash can is another - all it will do is pay bills and salaries for a company whose business model is flawed at this point. /end rant

How to trade this?
I am going to take a day off today and remain on the sidelines. The market has started trading a bit irrational again and that is something that has hurt me substantially in October where I had a certain belief that was different then the market place - I want to say I have learned from those mistakes.

If you are to make a trade decision today wait for the 890 and then short from there with decent protection of 895. This is a trade I could justify but remain small. We are nearing the holidays, volume is going to get lower and people are taking a bit of a breather with their primary focus of trying to enjoy the holiday season after a burtal year.

Good luck all today =)

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