Wednesday, March 11, 2009

Market fooled me a bit ...

Well lets first review what we said before the day started.

I do not expect today to move sideways or with little volume. We will either see a sell off leading us back into the low 700 range with the 709/716 being reattempted as resistance or a strong continuation day that requires a close above 724 with an intraday test at the mid 730 range.

It is my anticipation that the low or high of the day will be set in the 10:50-11:10 time frames today, so watch this for a turn around either to the upside or a hard break lower.

It seems we were setting up with a scenario I had anticipated, time wise of course the window was off more then just an acceptable margin but the top was set in the morning trade. This was one of my primary failure signs for the new uptrend. We continued to go through support and turned support ranges into resistance (724). Everything was setting up for further drops, however, I had warned about the small chance of a strong turnaround and it occured 15 minutes later. The chances of this occuring were quite slim but it needed to be stated to be included in analysis for whatever positions we were holding. We rallied quite strong and attempted to retest the upper range just to fall short a few points.

We closed at 721 which is an acceptable margin when looking at the 724, but still a close below a strong resistance/support point. On the other hand, closing at 721 could also be considered sideways, especially with the lighter volume (lightest in 5 trade days and below average), something I felt would not happen here.

Additionally I made the statement that I feel the top is in at the 731. There still is a very good chance of this being the case.

  • we lacked volume and fell short of re-testing the top range
  • spinning top daily candle stick, after strong up candle showing weakness when strength was needed by the bulls.
  • Daily MACD divergence at 0, you know how much I love this indicator. This is a 50/50 sign under normal conditions but the market still favors the bear at the moment
  • While VIX broke the lower trendline it did hold the double bottom (02-26 low). When looking at ascending triangles many times it will break the lower trendline and use the previous bottom as a base to form a double bottom before breakout out on the upside.
  • top of the day 731 represents the 23% retracement level off our major 945 peak that I had missed in the review.

    So we are not quite out of the woods yet, especially being so close to the 738-741 major support. Additionally we will have to absorb the possible regulatory changes that will be discussed tomorrow.
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