Thursday, March 12, 2009

Sunny and blue skies ... really?

What a day, almost a 40 point range into one direction only without any type of retracement. If you would have told me this morning that this is how the day would end I would have never believed you.

We retested yesterdays top, which I had thought yesterday should mark the end of this rally. A mere retracement of 4 points and we continued rallying breaking pretty much every resistance point on the way up. Not even the important 738 held the market up here, 741 no stop, 745 none, 752 is where we finally said "ok lets halt here for a moment".

There seemed to have been a non-existance of normal sense and following of rules when it comes to market behavior and price action. This is the type of behavior that normally is only present when major market bottoms have been hit or you experience a capitulation type sell off event.

When we had hit the bottom in November 2008 I was convinced of the moves to come before they occured and here it seems they are occuring in front of my eyes and I am still questioning the action we are seeing.

[Mar 10 - Daily Review]
If we see 3 days in a row with a continued upward trend, even if it is minor, we may have to re-evaluate the mid/long term outlooks.

Today marked the 3rd day of signs of a continued upward trend. It seems all of the confirmations for a new trend have come into place. I have to admit even now it is quite difficult for me to understand that this is the basis for a new trend and that our mid term bottom has been marked. The bulls made their stand here, regardless of the low volume yet again.

I am going to be spending some more time tonight for a more detailed review tomorrow. While I would love to tell you that a reversal is incoming, what happened today cannot be ignored and requires some more detailed review.

1 comment:

  1. lokking foward to your analysis. If it opens up do you think it may retrace back to 740-745?