Friday, August 14, 2009

New Rule: Futures Stops

As some of you may remember I have been having quite a frustrating time with being stopped out during overnight sessions at key levels just to see the market reverse and my positions profitable during cash hours.

The last BIG stop was my long position that was stopped out at 865.75, a quarter point off the low at the early morning hours just to rally strong. As you know I have been short ES @ 1012 for one week now and have adjusted my stop management to only be valid during cash hours.

As a result of this rule change for futures positions I have been able to manage to remain on this position without much damage. Of course there were times with me sweating as we moved higher during overnight hours but was met with sell off to bring the cash hours back inline. As you can see my 1012 ES positions has NOT been in the reds since last week Friday during cash hours (though has been down as much as 4 points during overnight sessions).


  1. that is one scary looking 60 min candle on ES (futures). WOW

  2. what do you see here Chris? 1012 on Monday/ or higher?

  3. For this next run up (which is totally normal) I would assume a test at 1008 by early next week. I do expect OPEX to close right around the 1000 SPX mark (as we had anticipated).

    However, I did think we would get a full retracement first (by full I mean at least 980 SPX wise).

    I am quite unsure at this point - my perfect scenario did not work out as I was trying to play my short off 1012 (1015 SPX) against a long off the bottom of the anticipated retracement range. So for now I only have my short exposure that I will maintain until stopped out during cash hours.

    Its quite frustrating seeing a position up nicely and then get the profits taken away again - but this market has hardened me as a trader and forced me to be much more patient then I have ever been.

    As you know I have scaled down with capital exposure and minimized any play with trade vehicles that have either time decay or expense ratio decay (leveraged ETF's) until a better trend is in.

    As you saw from my position updates the puts were entered at a good price but exited as soon as the market showed me indecision (I did not want to burn away due to theta).

  4. well said. same here. I think Monday high at whatever level could be good short entry but safer entry will be below 990 even if you were to miss few points but get certainty of the direction. There is at least 40 to 50 spx point in this down cycle. Or may be more.