Thursday, August 20, 2009

So now what?

Quick update - Well, we hit all price targets we were looking for, and the move happened as we had anticipated. So now its pretty easy - just want and let the market show us. We are stuck at key resistance here and will have to make a move. Market is short term overbought so another push up will be hard to maintain so something has to give - however overnight we are already pushing way above yesterdays high.

Looking at the daily chart, we have been talking about the bollinger bands a few days ago and they keep on getting narrower and narrower. Whatever trend will break out will be quite large. I do have to admit, at this point a trend to the upside for a target of at least 1045 (possibly 1073-1074) is very likely.

I am still short and will be making a decision today around those positions. Not quite sure yet but its looking more and more that I may have to cover early next week.

8 comments:

  1. almost 20 point move overnight. Incredible. Looks like my ES short will be in the reds for the first time during cash hours today.

    I know its OPEX and we generally do not see trend days BUT this could turn out to be a stepping day higher and test the 1021-1022 range. Would not surprise me if we did.

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  2. "We saved the world from disaster" Bernanke says...

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  3. looks like he was correct. I have to admit, regardless of how bearish I am - one cannot ignore the market price action, forget volume for a second. Price wise there is incredible strength behind this move here.

    Take a look at the SPX for the last 2 years, then flip this chart around, one could argue without ANY doubt that the last 5 months had been the start of a big bear market.

    The break today of 1016 was primarily news related so we need to see follow through during early next week - considering how overbought we are on the short term one has to argue that the market needs to pull back a little bit to at least 998 before being able to stick to new highs, however, as the past has shown retracements are minimal.

    I had made a post 2 weeks ago regarding the wiki elliot wave component and wave 3 clearly matches what we are seeing here. Minimal pull backs and no chance to get invested on this move.

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  4. my account is not looking pretty today FYI. If a market can turn around a bearish portfolio this quickly one has to re-evaluate. For the bears it takes LOTS of patience and time to realize profits and the bulls are able to do the same in much shorter time frames.

    I am definitely STILL on the wrong side of the trade ....

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  5. I was about 1 long : 1.34 short as of yesterday's close. Planning to keep it this way for the rest of August...

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  6. yeah seems like a good ratio. Perfectly protected in case we go higher but positioned for a move lower that if it happens you can profit from.

    I am glad I am under exposed on the short side but even with my limited exposure it has been a very painful week thus far ....

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  7. by DEFAULT i AM 100% CASH. (EXCEPT it POSTION). You cannot go short or long here.

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  8. what is your read here Chris? still up or retracement to 1005 and then gallup to 1050

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