Thursday, August 20, 2009

So now what?

Quick update - Well, we hit all price targets we were looking for, and the move happened as we had anticipated. So now its pretty easy - just want and let the market show us. We are stuck at key resistance here and will have to make a move. Market is short term overbought so another push up will be hard to maintain so something has to give - however overnight we are already pushing way above yesterdays high.

Looking at the daily chart, we have been talking about the bollinger bands a few days ago and they keep on getting narrower and narrower. Whatever trend will break out will be quite large. I do have to admit, at this point a trend to the upside for a target of at least 1045 (possibly 1073-1074) is very likely.

I am still short and will be making a decision today around those positions. Not quite sure yet but its looking more and more that I may have to cover early next week.


  1. almost 20 point move overnight. Incredible. Looks like my ES short will be in the reds for the first time during cash hours today.

    I know its OPEX and we generally do not see trend days BUT this could turn out to be a stepping day higher and test the 1021-1022 range. Would not surprise me if we did.

  2. "We saved the world from disaster" Bernanke says...

  3. looks like he was correct. I have to admit, regardless of how bearish I am - one cannot ignore the market price action, forget volume for a second. Price wise there is incredible strength behind this move here.

    Take a look at the SPX for the last 2 years, then flip this chart around, one could argue without ANY doubt that the last 5 months had been the start of a big bear market.

    The break today of 1016 was primarily news related so we need to see follow through during early next week - considering how overbought we are on the short term one has to argue that the market needs to pull back a little bit to at least 998 before being able to stick to new highs, however, as the past has shown retracements are minimal.

    I had made a post 2 weeks ago regarding the wiki elliot wave component and wave 3 clearly matches what we are seeing here. Minimal pull backs and no chance to get invested on this move.

  4. my account is not looking pretty today FYI. If a market can turn around a bearish portfolio this quickly one has to re-evaluate. For the bears it takes LOTS of patience and time to realize profits and the bulls are able to do the same in much shorter time frames.

    I am definitely STILL on the wrong side of the trade ....

  5. I was about 1 long : 1.34 short as of yesterday's close. Planning to keep it this way for the rest of August...

  6. yeah seems like a good ratio. Perfectly protected in case we go higher but positioned for a move lower that if it happens you can profit from.

    I am glad I am under exposed on the short side but even with my limited exposure it has been a very painful week thus far ....

  7. by DEFAULT i AM 100% CASH. (EXCEPT it POSTION). You cannot go short or long here.

  8. what is your read here Chris? still up or retracement to 1005 and then gallup to 1050