Went long at the close

ES 1031.75

Quick short term update

If we bounce of ES 1049-1052 we should be seeing prices around 1069-1076 by Monday. If prices break the 1049 area the 1012-1018 ES prices will become very likely by Wednesday/Thursday next week.

Of course - this is if the market follows normal patterns - lol. As I had said yesterday my ability to read this market is pretty much zero - yes short term wise I can figure out where it will head - but anything out more then 2-3 days and it seems none of my strategies give me any significant edge.

Crazy markets

I thought I had some time this week to dedicate towards the markets but I am totally swamped with work (12+ hour days for the past 3 weeks). As you can see I have almost not traded in the past 3 weeks, I tried my short at the 1095 and got stopped out by a few points (look where we are now) and am now in a small ES long since the close yesterday (after 2 failed attempts intraday).

We are still in what I would consider crazy land market wise - its very difficult trying to be long or short and moves happen too fast for many people to get a nice low risk entry. Yes you can make money in this market but you have to keep your stops tight and targets small.

Whether its long or short - in my honest opinion the market has become very difficult to read. During times like there there are many strategies one can apply, one of course sitting out which I should have done many weeks ago - but I think one strategy becomes very important here and thats risk, cash and position management - more so then ever before.

Ok enough of this ... I promise I will become a regular again with my market comments and apologize for not having had the energy to post daily.

Back home in the US

Just arrived last night. Will comment on markets starting tomorrow again.

What the heck happened?

I am traveling back to the US this week so I had no time to watch the market after it made yet again another new high - so can someone explain to me what exactly happened here? Just got home just to see a 20 point drop on very strong volume strong tick. This must have been news driven ...

Comment Cleaner

Getting ready to travel back to the US this week ... so again less time. Almost 100% cash at this point. I may just throw my puts out the window here.

Starting fresh over by the end of this month - will post updates of course early next week after I am back home.

For now - not sure where we will go - it seems the sky is the limit.

No major updates yet

Still extremely busy with work. I did take a small ES short position yesterday around the close. We have a bit more earnings to come for this week so lets see how that will drive us.

And congratz to anyone long on Dow 10K. Quite amazing.

Odd Selling here

Sorry guys - finishing up lots of work here in the UK before going back home. Leaving almost no time to worry about the markets.

Just had to post as I saw this sell off here - quite odd especially since this happened on no news - but after all its only 5 pts.

Still catching up

Sorry guys and girls - still catching up with work. Been a busy week. Will comment after the first 30 min to figure out where we are heading.

Catch up day for me

As I had spent the past 3 days in meetings most of the time I have lots of catch up for work so will not be able to post much.

Futures are up 10 points at the moment and dollar doing its bear killing thing again. AA earnings were quite positive and if this is a sign of things to come for other companies - do not see how the bear can win here. Not saying that we should be going long - but I think its time for the market to show me if we are indeed still in a bear or not. Yes we are severely overbought and have had almost no pull backs during this rally. Every major resistance level we had provided a few points of SPX points on the downside but no real retracement.

DOW 10K - just another excuse for bears to go in heavy and loose more? It seems we had the same at 880, 930, 965 (that we just sliced through), 1000 SPX, 1014 (important FIB level). Yes the day I cover everything and go 100% cash is the day we will drop. Someone said that once you have reached the top and you are short - its the MOST uncomfortable feeling ever and you are inches away from the cover button - it seems I have been there before many times, again there today. I am glad I covered a lot of my shorts 2 days ago and am considering getting rid of the rest here as well - lets see what happens at the open.

Comment Cleaner

Still in meetings all day. Lets see what craziness we have to witness today.

The dollar

Well, everything came together perfectly yesterday. While I did not get a chance to get a long position during the bounce I did manage to reach my target off by a few cents to initiate new short positions.

HOWEVER, the dollar did another one of those WTF moves overnight. I got stopped out of my EURUSD though I did re-short at 1.47414 with a tight stop just above the HOD. While the overnight session is trading in a very tight range the breakout on EURUSD above 1.466 range has me quite concerned and may lead us to the 1052-1055 range on SPX, something I am really not prepared for.

We need to reverse below 1036 before 10:45 cash hours, otherwise we may remain above this range until late next week.

Still short via futures, new position in EURUSD, and a bunch of new puts - sweating a little bit though and may have to exit in the morning today.

3:13AM: Just added more to my EURUSD short. Quite a large position this time around with tight stop. European open should lead the way. Either 1052-1055 or finally head lower.

No update

In meetings all day. Same applies as mentioned Friday in comments. will comment at market open though =)

8:33AM: Just to repeat from comments on Friday "waiting for SPY 104.15-104.30 before initiating any new shorts"

How does one get positioned now?

Well, I am going to be a bit hasty and say that we can finally say that the rally off the march lows is over and the bear market resumes. Now as we can see the first batch of selling was quite strong and we are already a good 65-70 points away from our highs.

Now for us IT traders, the prices over the next 2 weeks do not matter - so in theory one could just go short off the open today for longer term positions and sit through any rallies. It almost seems that I was very wrong and the rally back to 1060+ was indeed the W2 many were calling for which means that we will not have much higher prices in the near future as we start a corrective W4 that could lead us back into the 1030-1040 range (if we are lucky).

I will be giving my position building a lot of thought here in the next 2-3 hours to figure out how to best use more of my buying power here. My perfect scenario would be a rally back to 1034-1038 after we have found our bottom - however, its entirely possible and to be honest VERY likely that we will NOT see this range again. From here on out many trapped longs will have to exit and I do not forsee new dip buyers come in until we reach much lower prices. Even if we get buyers at 1000, or 980 the big institutions will liquidate now that it appears that the rally is over. The next 2 weeks could just be a straight move down with minimal retracements.

My goal is to get committed around 65% on this move down (to give me enough room to hedge on counter rallies). That means another 40% to add here. I may just add 5% on a daily basis here for longer term positions over the next 8 days (5% a day = 8 trade days) which will mean I will be at my target by next friday. Lets see how it plays out.

Another non-event?

The last few times our unemployment number seemed to have no effect on the cash open. This time it will be different (lucky guess if I am right). I am long via ES @ 1023 with a tight stop (yes stop during non-cash hours).

More comments to come after the data had been released.

So whats going to happen next?

Anyone has a guess here? Too oversold to add any shorts, too afraid to go long (yeah as always). Just watching it here ....