Thursday, October 29, 2009

Crazy markets

I thought I had some time this week to dedicate towards the markets but I am totally swamped with work (12+ hour days for the past 3 weeks). As you can see I have almost not traded in the past 3 weeks, I tried my short at the 1095 and got stopped out by a few points (look where we are now) and am now in a small ES long since the close yesterday (after 2 failed attempts intraday).

We are still in what I would consider crazy land market wise - its very difficult trying to be long or short and moves happen too fast for many people to get a nice low risk entry. Yes you can make money in this market but you have to keep your stops tight and targets small.

Whether its long or short - in my honest opinion the market has become very difficult to read. During times like there there are many strategies one can apply, one of course sitting out which I should have done many weeks ago - but I think one strategy becomes very important here and thats risk, cash and position management - more so then ever before.

Ok enough of this ... I promise I will become a regular again with my market comments and apologize for not having had the energy to post daily.

28 comments:

  1. this stuff actually works ... you know, buying and waiting for it to go up hah

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  2. I got out of long prematuredly at 1052.5 but will take it any day. saw your twitter. good plan to go short at 1060. I might. or wait until tomorrow am

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  3. lol thats my exact avg price as well for my exists (had 2 exists all together)

    so same entry - same exit. Good job to both of us.

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  4. and regarding the short. It depends on the outcome. We have a high probability top today around the 2:45PM range. It could sell off a good 6 points from that level. However, if by 3:15PM we are still above 1057 we will most likely have follow through towards tomorrow morning 9:45-10:15.

    I will know more once we get closer towards 2:45PM.

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  5. It is now at resistance. 1059.75. may make a move to 1065? But a big down is coming soon tomorrow.

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  6. price target reached too early. Will most likely not short this today.

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  7. if we go higher (above 1062 for more then 60 minutes) this is not a corrective wave 4 - meaning this could be an ABC correction to move EVEN higher.

    DOW still has 10300 - never got there - some unfinished business up there.

    Who knows .... lol

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  8. went short at 1058.5. for a scalp to 50 ema at least.

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  9. Chrsi you mean ES or spx for the 1062 you mentioned. it looks like around 2:45 we may see the high to enter the short. i got stopped out of short at break even.

    Is your target still ES 1062 to go short?

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  10. I'm holding a lot of long positions and I'm trying to decide if I want to short S&P just to cover myself. It's so hard to read. I don't know if we're going to just break down from here (which a lot of blogs are leaning towards) or just a keep on going up.

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  11. I see 1063.5 as a target and correction to 50 ema at 1054is only to go up in wave C to 1070?

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  12. sam my targets were ES
    Ryan, nice move on the longs. I have to admit, I am not one to go to for advise anymore. I cannot read this market at the moment.

    From a bullish side - we have DOW 10300 that is just itching to be reached (around 1120-1130 on SPX). Further support for the bulls is the test of our previous 1040 range (yeah the one that made everyone swear we were at the top).

    If we had broken this range I would have said bears can finally get more aggressive. But you may remember from a WHILE back ... 1016 is where the rubber hits the road for the bears - and we are FAR from it. We closed at strong support yesterday and rallied all the way back up on strong price moves. I think this could go higher BUT I am not going to trade it either way. Long or short.

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  13. when I saw not trading ... I will trade of course but only in tiny positions ... nothing large until I can read the markets again.

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  14. Sam, if we close above 1060 we have a valid ABC formation to go higher (new high). If we reverse below this range to close lower we have a valid (though very stretched W4 correction) that could last a bit longer and reach anywhere from 1012-1018 on ES.

    All numbers ES ...

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  15. Unfortunately, I'm still underwater for most of the positions since I went long last week also thinking we'll make it to 1100+ on SPX. I'm trapped but at least not bleeding as bad as I was yesterday.

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  16. I'm also watching the close, if we can close near the high EOD, I will continue to hold and not hedge. I HOPE that's the right move.

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  17. shorting it at 1061.50 (limit order)

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  18. Chris your 2:45 time frame is right here. it will be good entry.

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  19. what is your stop--mental or real?

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  20. 1063.50 for now ... but may move it closer depending on price action.

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  21. now it just needs to reverse below 1057 ... this should occur around 3:05-3:15PM. Until then it should bounce in a narrow range (and depending on how it trades in the next 15 minutes I may move stop closer towards 1062.25 since we have a potential for another push up into the close.

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  22. when I say 3:05-3:15 - thats when the sell off should start.

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  23. you got it. i placed it on 1062.5 waiting

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  24. as the topic says ... crazy market lol - did not expect a breach of those key range @ 1062

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  25. i too got stoppedout. what next?

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  26. stopped out as well ... just watching it now ...

    I dare say we get to 1068 today ... if we will, going to give it another try.

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