Thursday, October 8, 2009

Catch up day for me

As I had spent the past 3 days in meetings most of the time I have lots of catch up for work so will not be able to post much.

Futures are up 10 points at the moment and dollar doing its bear killing thing again. AA earnings were quite positive and if this is a sign of things to come for other companies - do not see how the bear can win here. Not saying that we should be going long - but I think its time for the market to show me if we are indeed still in a bear or not. Yes we are severely overbought and have had almost no pull backs during this rally. Every major resistance level we had provided a few points of SPX points on the downside but no real retracement.

DOW 10K - just another excuse for bears to go in heavy and loose more? It seems we had the same at 880, 930, 965 (that we just sliced through), 1000 SPX, 1014 (important FIB level). Yes the day I cover everything and go 100% cash is the day we will drop. Someone said that once you have reached the top and you are short - its the MOST uncomfortable feeling ever and you are inches away from the cover button - it seems I have been there before many times, again there today. I am glad I covered a lot of my shorts 2 days ago and am considering getting rid of the rest here as well - lets see what happens at the open.


  1. now as you all know. 1% GAP leads to a stepping day that rarely fail. Low of day should be set within the first 5-10 minutes around 2 SPX points off the open.

    So we know within the first 15 minutes if we add another 8-10 points to where we open OR if we sell off. A sell off here should fill the GAP first at least 62+% - then small rally towards 50% of the down move and then strong break of the previous close price.

    However, as you know, probability wise I would say at least 70% chance we see a strong up day here. Strong in terms of price.