Monday, March 8, 2010

Back to Square one so it seems

Well my first real short attempt ended yet again with failure. The market gave us a clear picture so it seems based on Fridays price action. There was no profit taking, no reversal after hitting a key resistance level.

As a result, higher prices are likely again, with minimal or shallow corrections that will get bought. The market really had its chance to start a bigger correction or what I consider a resumption of the bear market - it is clear now that we have to wait a bit longer. Does not mean we cannot see lower prices, but the market needs to play itself out on the upside first, before we can make a new call, yes we have the double top as a potential turning point but I only see this as a shorter term correction to go to new highs. The final target now seems obvious of anything from 1180 towards our 1217 target that we had been talking about a few weeks back.

There is a chance for more downside this week but I would expect 1118 to hold and give a chance for many to scale out of shorts, hedge or minimize risk overall.

EURUSD is trying to create an uptrend but every attempt higher is being pressured by the declining trendlines so this still appears corrective in nature for new lows to come, however, we do need to work off some of those oversold conditions here on the longer term charts so I would not be surprised seeing another week or so of sideways moves. This should help SPX move higher. Regardless, both the FX and equities side have interesting charts and patterns that make it difficult to make any longer term calls with great confidence.

Stay nimble and stay small still seems the way to go. At least for me =)

1 comment:

  1. looks like the market wants to consolidate first before planning its next move. To be expected and is a sign of more upside to come.

    So I would assume we will be testing 1129-1131, most likely though that we will stop at 1132.75 SPX levels tomorrow probably by early morning.

    We are staying in a fairly tight range and should not be making a major move here, looking like HOD was made in the morning, and we may get another 3 pts on the downside but should close fairly flat.

    Should not see a big move here today, if so, it will be bound by 1130 on the lower end.