Monday, August 18, 2008

In search for the top

Well Guys, time is up for the market. Our trade range has narrowed down to an extremly close range that requires a break out. I anticipated a breakout on Thursday, none happened, then on Friday, none happened (happened to also be expiration friday so no action there). I feel today will be the last move of our leg. As some of you remember I called for the 1312 on 7/23/2008 - though I was off in timing the price point was correct. I feel on our last attempt today that this number may very well be broken to reach our 1322-1323 intraday number where our change of trend would occur.

Time and Price
We have quite a few numbers to consider today so be ready for more then usual.

1st high 1302 - of course break here to the upside
2nd high 1312-1313 - our top from before with a possible break
3rd high 1323 - we could stall half way there from the second high but this seems possible today
Open/Close 1298
1st low 1292-1293 - we know its importance here from previous tops
2nd low 1288 - by the end of the day this will be the bottom of our lower trend line
3rd low 1282 - bottom of trend line on Friday - a break here will change our trend but need one final confirmation at 1274

The market should spent the first part of the day attempting to reach the highs before our final reversal. While there is no economic data today should be a powerful day regardless.

Mid Term
As mentioned previously we are in a counter trend of our primary bearish move that is not yet over. The incoming reversal should bring us back to retest the lows - here we will see what the market will do by either entering another bear market rally (unlikly) or break the 1200 to go for new lows.

Other Market Moves
There are a few things to watch at the moment - Oil has been brought to 113 with major support at 110, we will see a reversal here in my opinion, same applies to dollar, the recent up moves that fueled the continutation of our market seem to be stalling and topping out as well. How do I anticipate trading this? - Go long oil after confirmation of 116-117 number, then short AMR (American Airlines) within 1-2 days after the long position.

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