Monday, August 25, 2008

Back on track?

Previous Trade Day
Being still frustrated from Thursday I am glad fridays call worked out as anticipated. We gapped in the open right at the first high at 1282, then went straight for 1292 where we did not break as anticipated. We held on to gains, said hello to the 1282 one last time and then retested the upper range twice. As mentioned a break here seemed unlikly and 3 tests is quite impressive - closing all the way on the upper band is an even more bullish sign.

We should expect some resistance at this point considering we have had a nice 30 pt run from our lower support ranges. It is important to see how we trade around the 1292 range today - getting back into this area will lead to a break today and hit 1302 - here is where we would see a change of trend.

Time and Price
1nd high 1302 - should be our top today - of course break will bring is back to the 1312
Open/Close 1292
1st low 1282 - we may stop half way to here at the 1286 mark though I do expect 1282 to be hit today though it is my anticipation we will test it only
2nd low 1276

Time wise I feel today will be more of a sideways day. We held on to our gains on Friday and we need to make sure we do not put ourselves into an overbought condition. Hitting 1302 today will be a trend changer as traders will take profits from a 40pt 3 day run. We have the weekend on our side so we may hold on to those gains today but I would not expect it.

Mid Term
Well, as indicated on Friday we still see ourselves in the overall uptrend that started on July 15th. We did have a breakout of the wedge/consolidation though we get ourselves back into that range. At this point its a bit more difficult to forecast price moves - my anticipation of course is seeing ourselves back in the 1312 range - a range I feel that will be broken on the next stronger attempt.

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