Tuesday, August 26, 2008

I guess we are ....

Holy cow - 1292/1266, back to where we started on Thursday morning. Definitly a move I would not have expected especially this strong. Here is another one of those "would have, could have, should have" - my bad thursday position would have been in the money now.

I guess we did give up those gains we had built. If I would have been more careful I should have been able to forsee this drop, maybe not as drastic. VIX was bottoming, the standard "oil/dollar/s&p" had divergence and more importantly we had been trading on very light volume on our past up days - all signs of a strong reversal.

Well today is going to be an important day, we have our 1262 right around the corner. I had indicated last week that 1252 is going to be a very important point, based on how we have been trading 1262 has turned into the point I thought 1252 was going to be. So be very careful how we trade around this point.

Time and Price
2nd high 1282
1st high 1276
open/close 1266
1st low 1262
2nd low 1252

Considering the moves we have had last week and Monday we need to find how fast we go into which direction. A break of the 1262 will definitly lead us lower by quite a bit. Watch out for a bounce to the upside from this point. We have established 1262 as a fairly strong support point now so lets be careful and not ignore this.

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