Tuesday, August 19, 2008

Nothing found here

We have finally broken our trend for the first time now since July 15th - the market appeared very weak yesterday and was not able to rally even off key support ranges. My timing component was off quite a bit causing me to loose my proper entry points - I did not switch it up until it was too late and missed my entry for this down run.

Price wise, I am quite happy that my numbers worked out, not 100% accurate but close enough - hit the high at 1300, then went for first low at 1292 (with last stop at 1290), straight for 1286 - then stopped at 1282 and went straight for the final trend confirmation at 1274 that we did not break today. We closed below the trend line though recovered a little in the after hours. I said we need to wait for the last confirmation at 1274 and I stand by this - the market could have thrown a fake here and will attempt to retest the 1312 as I had indicated - very unlikly but needs to be considered.

Little bit mad at myself here - with the proper backup plan could have easily figured out the change in timing to be able to lock in some profits (sigh). I have to be careful on the downside now as we are nearing oversold conditions on the 60min charts, though the daily looks still acceptable for another 20-30 points down.

We touched last weeks lows and need to break those to continue on the downside - we are very close to that range so this will be part of today. On the upside of course we need to maintain ourselves above the 1282 range.

Time and Price
1st high 1282
2nd high 1289-1291 - a break here and I feel confident we may re-establish the search for the top

1st low 1274 - a break here and we will see the next low as well
2nd low 1262/1266 - both very close but going to include them as one low
3rd low 1252 - won't reach this today but including this due to its significance in the future

The market should continue to show weakness and only have small rallys off support ranges, it is my feel that the 1274 will be broken today

No comments:

Post a Comment